More signs that the Democratic Party primary race is tightening. A new Quinnipiac poll finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders regaining lost ground against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in a major Iowa poll for the first time since September, the latest sign the Democratic primary race is tightening between the two candidates.
The Vermont senator wins 49 percent of likely caucusgoers in the Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, compared to Clinton’s 44 percent. It’s a significant drop for the former secretary of State from last month’s Quinnipiac poll, which had her up by 11 percent.
Sanders is boosted by his 30-point lead among men, a significantly higher favorability rating, and more favorable views of his character traits and values. He’s seen as a better steward of the economy and climate change, while Clinton wins on foreign policy, terrorism and healthcare.Iowa Democrats still believe Clinton has a better shot at the White House, with 85 percent picking her compared to 68 percent who think Sanders can win.
Sanders’s lead is just outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percent.
While Sanders was polling well in New Hampshire, Clinton had remained in much better shape in Iowa, where she regularly posted double-digit margins as recently as December. But the caucus state’s polling has narrowed in January, with this week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showing her up by just 3 percent.
A win in both states would be a major victory for the Sanders campaign as he seeks to push back against the narrative that his support doesn’t translate into electability. But even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s polling significantly worse in most other states, including South Carolina and Nevada, the next two Democratic primary contests.
And to repeat again what I’ve noted in many posts over the years:
1. The conventional wisdom is always stated with certainty or near certainty by pundits. Why, Donald Trump can never get the nomination. Why, Bernie Sanders could never be nominated or elected. In fact, nothing is certain until ballots are cast and there is a wide variety of things that can occur during the months of a Presidential election campaign that can be totally unexpected that could shift a race. If someone is running for a nomination, until it’s decided they can get it; if someone is running in one of the two major parties or if there is an extremely strong third party, he or she can be elected.
2. Partisans will cherry pick parts of polls they like and will tout the polls favorable to their candidate and unfavorable to another.
3. Both parties could find themselves with chunks of voters who don’t want to vote for the nominee. In the case of Democrats, Democrats teaching their party a lesson by staying home or voting for Ralph Nader were one of the reasons why Democrats literally frittered away their New Deal-Great Society liberal influence on the Court. In 2016 it’s estimated the next President could appoint three new Supreme Court judges. Those who stay home or vote for third parties should not later complain if a Republican administration correctly honors its promises to its voters. Similarly, GOPers who don’t support their ticket (if it’s Trump, or not Trump) will also have to weigh the fact that elections do have consequences.
4. American political media new and old love the horserace and the drama. But the conventions won’t be held until the summer, there are lots of primaries to come, sadly likely some national crises that will alter the political mood perhaps like an ongoing see saw, and the actual ballots won’t be counted until November.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.