It has happened. And more than it.

A new poll shows that in the wake of the sex tape scandals and what polls show was a widely panned debate performance Sunday, Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump is now tied with Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. And there’s more: independent candidate Evan McMullin has seen a massive surge — and is in a statistical heat with the two main party candidates, leading to the real possibility that he could win the state. The Deseret News:

Republican Donald Trump appears to have, in his earlier words, “a tremendous problem in Utah” as a new poll shows him slipping into a dead heat with Democrat Hillary Clinton since crude comments he made about women surfaced last weekend.

And along with the billionaire businessman’s sudden fall, independent candidate and BYU graduate Evan McMullin surged into a statistical tie with the two major party presidential nominees, according to survey conducted Monday and Tuesday by Salt Lake City-based Y2 Analytics.

“A third-party candidate could win Utah as Utahns settle on one,” said Quin Monson, Y2 Analytics founding partner.

McMullin may well have caught lightning in a bottle.

The poll shows Clinton and Trump tied at 26 percent, McMullin with 22 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 14 percent if the election were held today. Y2 Analytics surveyed 500 likely Utah voters over landlines and cellphones Oct. 10-11 The poll has a plus or minus 4.4 percent margin of error.

Also, a majority of voters statewide and specifically Mormons, as well as a near majority of Republicans, say Trump should drop out of the race, according to the poll.

………A cascade of rank-and-file Republicans and GOP leaders in Utah abandoned their support for Trump soon after the video became public. A BYU political science professor described the reaction in Utah as a “full-scale revolt” against Trump.

Basically, polls show that Trump’s campaign is virtually collapsing in many states throughout the country as he now has declared war on three fronts: against Hillary Clinton, against Republicans who are against him or won’t campaign for him, and against the news media (which created, publicized and enabled him right into the Republican nomination).

Allahpundit:

Incidentally, Team Clinton’s internal polling must also be showing a Trump trainwreck in Utah or else she wouldn’t have bothered rolling out that “Mormons for Hillary” ad yesterday. She’s fighting a losing battle, though, I think. The Deseret News poll linked up top shows her unfavorable rating in the state at around 70 percent, about as bad as Trump’s is. Of the three unlikely outcomes in Utah now in play — Trump recovers and holds the state, McMullin surges past him among Republicans and wins, and Trump and McMullin split evenly and Clinton somehow nudges past them to win — number three seems the least likely, as only McMullin has upward momentum. But who knows? The Salt Lake Tribune endorsed her today, and the fact that the state is in play might boost morale among Utah Democrats who wouldn’t have bothered to vote otherwise but now see an opportunity for an upset. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Trump finishes third. In Utah.

Not that it matters to Hillary at this point. Exit question: Will Romney et al. endorse McMullin or just sit out the election?

Doug Mataconis:

To put this in historical perspective, Utah has not gone for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in 1964 and has only gone for a Democrat one other time since World War II, in the 1948 contest between Harry Truman and Thomas Dewey.
If this poll is accurate, it really is bad news for Trump’s Electoral College chances regardless of whether it means that the state’s six Electoral Votes go into Clinton’s column or end up going to either of the two third-party candidates that seem to be benefiting from Trump’s troubles among the state’s Mormon voters. Taking those six votes out of Trump’s column makes it that much harder for him to get to the 270 votes that he would need to win the election. Indeed, any loss in any state that Mitt Romney won in 2012 would be nearly fatal to his campaign since it would increase the number of Obama states he would need to win this time around. In that regard, polling has already been showing Clinton leading in North Carolina, which would take another fifteen Electoral Votes off the table for Trump. If Utah were to leave his camp as well, it would mean Trump starts 21 Electoral Votes behind where Romney was four years ago.

Vox:

As Rappeport wrote, Trump’s problems in the state are primarily problems with Mormons, who make up about 62 percent of the state’s population. Part of this is likely due to Trump’s aggressive, profane personal style and his lack of concern for traditional social issues — concerns surely only heightened by the release of Trump’s “grab ’em by the pussy” tape.

But the candidate’s willingness to scapegoat American Muslims and refugees also seems to have played a major role. His proposals and rhetoric conflict with Mormon teachings and instincts — their own minority faith has faced much discrimination in the past, after all.

Last December, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints released a statement clearly aimed at criticizing Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration. “The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is neutral in regard to party politics and election campaigns. However, it is not neutral in relation to religious freedom,” the statement read.

Clinton went after Trump on these exact topics in her Deseret News op-ed in August, writing that she’d fight to “defend religious freedom” for “oppressed communities,” and that “Trump’s Muslim ban would undo centuries of American tradition and values.”

Key Utah Republicans have also opposed Trump for months. Mitt Romney (who lives there now) gave a speech condemning his candidacy and has vowed not to vote for him. Sen. Mike Lee has long harshly criticized Trump.

And when former Sen. Bob Bennett was on his deathbed earlier this year, he reportedly asked if there were “any Muslims in the hospital” so he could “thank them for being in this country, and apologize to them on behalf of the Republican Party for Donald Trump.” It’s difficult to imagine a stronger repudiation than that.

Still, Trump seemed to be remaining on top in the polls despite all this — until his leaked tape scandal, which played especially poorly in the religious and conservative state.

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JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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