Too little too late? As some pundits and political types considered thoughtful (and not so thoughtful) continue to warn that Trump has fascist tendencies, new poll finds that Trump’s support has peaked within the Republican Party
and in no way does he have close tofull support of the GOP. It also notes that his critics back a convention fight to deny him the nomination.
Donald Trump’s facing a wall within his party, with Republicans who don’t currently support him far more apt to prefer Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in a two-way race — or even to favor a contested convention to block Trump’s nomination.
Trump continues to lead in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who are registered to vote saying they’d like to see him win the nomination. But he trails both Cruz and Rubio one-on-one. And preferences for Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich have grown as others have left the race, while Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months.
In the current multi-candidate race, 25 percent say they’d like to see Cruz win the nomination, with 18 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Kasich; those are +4, +7 and +11 points compared with January, respectively, to new highs for each. Trump, by contrast, peaked at 38 percent in December. (In a difference from previous matchups, this poll asked respondents whom they’d like to see win, rather than whom they’d vote for, since the primaries are underway.)
AND:
In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz leads Trump by 54-41 percent and Rubio leads Trump by 51-45 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. While the latter lead isn’t statistically significant, both are further signs of the apparent limits to Trump’s popularity within his party. Indeed, among non-Trump supporters, seven in 10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d pick Rubio, in head-to-head contests.
And the Democrats?
The national survey, conducted March 3-6, also finds less drama but still a closer-than-previous race on the Democratic side, where Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents who are registered to vote say by 49-42 percent that they’d like to see Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders — the closest it’s been in any ABC/Post poll this cycle, dramatically tighter than the peak 68-16 percent Clinton advantage in vote preferences in July.
It’s the first time preference for Clinton has slipped below half of registered leaned Democrats in ABC/Post polls, as well as the first time Sanders has held a lead among men. Still, Clinton’s 12-point advantage among mainline Democrats is keeping her boat afloat.
Trump has some other hurdles to climb:
There are more trouble signs for Trump in the Republican race: A tepid 52 percent of leaned Republicans see him favorably overall. Just 51 percent say they’d be satisfied with him as the nominee. And those who don’t currently support Trump say by a broad 63-30 percent that if he lacks the majority it takes to win on the first ballot — even if he has the most delegates — they’d rather have the convention pick someone else.
Trump, as noted in the two-way results, has a particular problem with GOP women. His support from women is 20 points lower than from men, 24 vs. 44 percent. (The gender gap has fluctuated; it was similar in December, disappeared in January, and now is back in a big way.) Moreover, 60 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning women say they’d be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee, including 45 percent “very” dissatisfied. Comparable numbers among GOP men are far lower –- 35 percent would be dissatisfied with Trump, 20 percent very much so.
AND:
Other results also mark Trump’s challenges as a front-runner under siege. He trails Cruz and Rubio alike in all four personal attributes tested in this survey. Fewer than half of leaned Republicans -– from 42 to 45 percent –- call Trump honest and trustworthy, say he understands their problems, think he has the right personality and temperament, or say he has the right experience to be president. Comparable numbers are 63 or 64 percent on each attribute for Cruz and 61 to 63 percent for Rubio on the first three items. He slips to 50 percent on experience.
Some of these have worsened for Trump: a 12-point drop among leaned Republicans since September in seeing him as honest and trustworthy and an 8-point drop in thinking he has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president.
Trump, again, is especially weak on personal attributes among GOP women -– off by 15 to 20 points compared with men. And just 41 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning women see him favorably overall, vs. 62 percent of men. Indeed, 40 percent of these women see Trump “strongly” unfavorably, compared with 24 percent of GOP men.
And the Democratic race retains some fluidity, to be sure:
But the cliche is still true:
The poll that matters is on election day — so these numbers will likely change as winners get Big Mo and losers become Big Shmo.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.