I have continuously said that those who smugly write or utter the conventional wisdom about Donald Trump cannot be elected are going off on a very shaky limb. And a new PPP Poll shows Republicans quickly unifying against Donald Trump, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a modest lead — raising the real prospect that Bernie Sanders supporters who decide to stay home and teach their party a lesson could be helping to elect the next President (Trump). Sanders continues to do better than Clinton when matched up against Trump. Details:
PPP’s new national poll finds that Republicans have quickly unified around Donald Trump, making the Presidential race more competitive than it has previously been perceived to be.
I’ve long predicted this as well. I often tell people: tune into Rush Limbaugh and what he is advocating will be the way it turns out. Limbaugh initially seemed to question Trump but then quickly turned into making excuses for Trump and cheering him on. Some other talkers and members of the conservative political entertainment media including the ultimate political celebrity Sarah Palin joined the pro-Trump movement. And they’ve been calling for the party to come together and blasting those who won’t endorse Trump. So, in a sense, this is predictable.
Hillary Clinton leads Trump 42-38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a match up just between Clinton and Trump, her lead expands to 47-41. That’s because supporters of Johnson and Stein would prefer her over Trump 36-18. Although there’s been a lot of talk about third party candidates drawing support away from Trump, they’re actually taking a little bit more from Clinton at this point.
Clinton leads Trump 78-9 among Democrats in the full field at this point, while Trump leads Clinton 78-7 among Republicans.
And there’s the important point: the Republicans are JUST as unified now with some who don’t like Trump as the Democrats are with some who don’t like Clinton:
Although much has been made of disunity in the GOP, it is actually just as unified behind Trump as the Democrats are behind Clinton. 72% of Republicans now say they’re comfortable with Trump as their nominee to only 21% who they aren’t. Those numbers are little different from the ones among Democrats that find 75% of them would be comfortable with Clinton as their nominee to 21% who say they would not be.
Bernie Sanders continues to do the best in general election match ups, leading Trump 47-37 with Johnson at 3% and Stein at 1% in the full field, and leading Trump 50-39 head to head. The difference between how Clinton and Sanders fare against Trump comes almost completely among young people. In the full field Clinton leads 46-24, but Sanders leads 64-18 with voters between 18 and 29. In one on ones with Trump, Clinton leads 49-27, but Sanders leads 70-14.
The undecideds in a Clinton-Trump match up right now support Sanders 41-8 in a match up with Trump, so the bad news for Clinton is that she has work to do to win over a certain segment of Sanders supporters in the general, but the good news is that they are at least somewhat Democratic leaning and she has the potential to increase her advantage over Trump by a couple points if she is eventually able to get them in her corner. Democrats lead a generic question about which party people would vote for President 49-41, so that may be somewhat of a forecast for where the race could be headed if/when Sanders supporters unify around Clinton for the general.
The poll also checked to see what Trump supporters thought of various conspiracy theories about Obama and found this:
-65% think President Obama is a Muslim, only 13% think he’s a Christian.
-59% think President Obama was not born in the United States, only 23% think that he was.-27% think vaccines cause autism, 45% don’t think they do, another 29% are not sure.
-24% think Antonin Scalia was murdered, just 42% think he died naturally, another 34% are unsure.
-7% think Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of JFK, 55% think he was not involved, another 38% are unsure.
Plus this aside:
And closing the loop on the greatest conspiracy theory of this election- a rare one that Trump didn’t embrace- 5% of voters nationally think Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer, 18% are unsure, and 77% find Cruz not guilty of the charge of being a serial killer in diapers. So at least he has that going for him.
And how do voters think Trump compares with various maladies or unpleasant experiences?
Do you have a higher opinion of Donald Trump or
________________
Results (Trump +/-)
Hemorrhoids
Trump, 45/39 (+6)
Cockroaches
Trump, 46/42 (+4)
Nickelback
Nickelback, 39/34 (-5)
Used Car Salesmen
Used Car Salesmen, 47/41 (-6)
Traffic Jams
Traffic Jams, 47/40 (-7)
Hipsters
Hipsters, 45/38 (-7)
DMV
DMV, 50/40 (-10)
Root Canals
Root Canals, 49/38 (-11)
Jury Duty
Jury Duty, 57/35 (-22)
Lice
Lice, 54/28 (-26)
The take out of all this, if this poll is correct?
1. Once again the conventional wisdom so smugly uttered and written about what’s probably could well be off base. YES Donald Trump IS electable.
2. Just as Trump foes in the GOP could sandbag Trump’s election, if Clinton does not win over Bernie Sander’s supporters or if out of spite or revenge they don’t vote for her, it could mean the election. In the case of Democrats, however, the party’s left has a long history of sitting at home during mid-terms or not supporting a Presidential candidate they don’t like, which is why the party frittered away it’s liberal majority of the Supreme Court. The next President could determine the court’s path for a generation (or more).
3. Media political talk shows with spinners and paid analysts are fun to watch but don’t bet your house on their predictions. The conventional wisdom of one moment is quietly swept under the rug if it proves wrong, or followed by soul searching or CYA work and vows to do a better job next time, but next time the job is often just as off base as the first. (But their paychecks, hits and ratings just keep coming in).
Here’s a suggestion: just follow University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato: he has an excellent record for analysis and accurate political predictions. THIS should be required reading for anyone serious about following the election, versus those who talk and write trying to pitch political agendas to readers, viewers and listeners.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.