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Posted by on Feb 29, 2016 in 2016 Elections, 2016 Presidential Election, Politics | 8 comments

Poll: Clinton and Trump way ahead on verge of Super Tuesday

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A new nationwide CNN/ORC poll finds showman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are way ahead a day before Super Tuesday:

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are poised to lead the nation’s two major parties in this fall’s presidential election, with a new nationwide CNN/ORC poll finding each well ahead of their closest competitors just as the race expands to a national stage.

Trump has expanded his lead over the diminished field to capture the support of nearly half of Republican voters, while Clinton tops Sanders by nearly 20 points.

On the Republican side, the new survey finds Trump’s lead is dominant, and his support tops that of his four remaining opponents combined. The businessman tops his nearest competitor by more than 30 points: 49% back Trump, 16% Marco Rubio, 15% Ted Cruz, 10% Ben Carson and 6% John Kasich.

Trump’s supporters are incredibly enthusiastic about the coming election, and largely committed in their support for him. Nearly 8 in 10 say that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections, among Republicans who are not supporting Trump, just 39% say they are more enthusiastic than in years past. Likewise, 78% of Trump’s backers say they will definitely support him vs. 22% who say they could still change their minds. Among those backing other candidates, 57% say they are committed to their chosen candidate.

The survey asked those Republicans not currently backing Trump whether they would support him if he became the party’s nominee, and just a quarter of Republicans overall say they probably or definitely wouldn’t support him in November. That’s about the same as the share saying they wouldn’t back Rubio or Cruz.


On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton tops Bernie Sanders 55% to 38% in the new poll, a slightly wider margin than she held in late January before any primaries or caucuses were held.

Find your presidential match with the 2016 Candidate Matchmaker

There are sharper demographic splits among the Democratic electorate than on the Republican side. Men, younger voters, independents and liberals are all about evenly split between Clinton and Sanders, while Clinton’s lead rests on large advantages among women, older voters, Democrats and moderates.

Democrats are more apt than Republicans to say they would support either of the remaining top candidates should they become the nominee. Just 15% each say they wouldn’t back Clinton or Sanders.

Clinton tops Sanders handily as the candidate who would be more effective at solving the country’s problems and can better handle the responsibilities of being commander-in-chief, but Sanders fares better than Clinton on honesty, 59% say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. 36% who say Clinton is. Overall, voters are split on whether Clinton or Sanders better understands the problems facing people like you, 49% say Clinton, 48% Sanders.

One poll does not an election result make.

So stay tuned tomorrow night for the results..

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  • Bob Munck

    One poll does not an election result make.

    Well, one of them does, but it’s the one with the sample size of about 130 million (and a very small margin of error).

    • A “very small margin of error”?? Please explain how we end up each election with so many dead people voting; exit polling (the gold standard throughout the world for certifying elections) that does not match results, and all sorts of other shenanigans then…

      • Bob Munck

        Please explain how we end up each election with so many dead people voting

        Do you have any figures on how many dead people vote in the typical election? “Dead people voting” is more cliche than established fact, an urban legend.

        exit polling (the gold standard throughout the world for certifying elections) that does not match results

        In what way are exit polls “the gold standard?” People are more apt to lie to exit pollsters than to voices on the telephone, because they’re talking face-to-face, and exit poll populations are much less likely to be random. As a statistician, I’m going to have a lot more faith in the correctness of the ballot than in the exit poll.

        • It is an established fact that dead people voting is not a fact. It is bait that Fox News likes to use to convince Trump voters to believe that voter ID laws are needed.

        • Okay…

          Exit Polling is used by the UN to certify elections (as fraudulent or basically fair). It is so accurate that it is used by major networks to call states three seconds after they have closed voting (i.e. with 0 precincts reporting).

          Anecdotal accusations from people who work with the voting process in Fitchburg, MA suggest that there are a lot (and I mean A LOT) of votes tallied that were never cast by voters. I AM NOT SUGGESTING that voter fraud is being conducted by people pretending to be other people. It is at the election committee level that there appears to be “problems.”

          • Bob Munck

            It is so accurate that it is used by major networks to call states three seconds after they have closed voting

            If the exit polls show one candidate leading by just 1%, I’ll guarantee they won’t call it for him. Ditto 2%, maybe even 4%. The networks know from years of experience how accurate exit polls are, and they also know how foolish they’ll look if they call an election and later turn out to be wrong. That’s why you hear the phrase “too close to call” even when there’s a lot of actual voting results data to supplement the exit polls.

            I’ll bet the same general principle applies to the UN’s use of exit polls to certify elections.

            Anecdotal accusations

            Such things are utterly meaningless.

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