As the political world watches the (for now) political descent of once GOP front-runner Arizona Senator John McCain, polls continue to show that the person now rising on the political see-saw is a certain former mayor of NYC who isn’t a conservative’s dream candidate — but may be the dream candidate of more pragmatic GOPers. Newsweek reports:
Maybe it is Giuliani time, after all. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has pulled far ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head GOP presidential primary matchup, according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll—beating McCain 59 percent to 34 percent. Giuliani’s lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is even more formidable (70 percent to 20 percent).
Keep in mind that the Newsweek’s poll is not a poll of the Republican base or of conservatives, but more broad-brush — which still leaves the question as whether Giuliani, who may (now) be the strongest prospective Republican Party candidate to be put up for the 2008 White House race, can win the nomination of his own party. MORE:
But perhaps the best news for the man once dubbed “America’s Mayor” for his role in seeing New York through the 9/11 attacks is the lead he’s opened up on his potential Democratic rivals for the White House. According to the survey, Giuliani outpolls Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 5 points (48 percent to 43 percent), former senator John Edwards by 2 points (47 percent to 45 percent) and Sen. Hillary Clinton by 1 point (47 percent to 46 percent). Last month Clinton led Giuliani by 3 points (49 percent to 46 percent), as did Obama (47 percent to 44 percent). Thirteen percent of registered Democrats say they would cross party lines to support Giuliani, while only 4 percent of Republicans say they would do the same for Clinton. Perhaps more important, among independent voters, Giuliani leads Clinton 49 percent to 42 percent.
And Newsweek doesn’t mince words about GWB — who is now more unpopular than Vice President Dick Cheney:
President Bush, meanwhile, remains stuck in the gutter—receiving a 31 percent approval rating, up just 1 point from his all-time low last month and still 2 points below Vice President Dick Cheney.
Meanwhile, the Democratic front-runner remains H-i-l-l-a-r-y (or C-l-i-n-t-o-n to those who feel the use of the first name is sexist):
Among Democrats, Sen. Clinton remains a formidable front runner. She leads Obama by a double-digit margin (52 percent to 38 percent) and handily outpaces Edwards (63 percent to 32 percent). In a general-election heat against McCain, the Vietnam War hero who announced this week his intention to run for president on “The Late Show with David Letterman,â€? Clinton leads by only 1 point (47 percent to 46 percent). Interestingly, both Obama and Edwards fare slightly better against the Arizona senator—Obama by 2 points (45 percent to 43 percent) and Edwards, the Democrats’ 2004 vice presidential nominee, by 5 points (48 percent to 43 percent).
This poll suggests severa things:
(1) It’s still very early in the game but the inside-the-beltway stories of Hillary in trouble aren’t showing up in this poll.
(2) The conservative base, conservative columnists, conservative talk-show hosts, and conservative blogs may have other favorites but Giuliani seems to be wearing well as he goes around the country. And, indeed, he is being “rolled out” in a careful, skillful way, generally appearing in venues and formats that present him in a desirable light.
(3) It would SEEM as if Senator McCain is oh, so 2000 — a candidate who was perhaps 8 years ahead of his time and now is running a campaign that is 8 years behind the times. His trick was to convince people from many sides but he seems to be turning off many of them.
(4) This latest Rudy poll can be totally inoperative once the race begins for a specific reason. Over the past 6 months McCain has hired some of the top — and most aggressive — political talent in the Republican Party, including some who have been under fire for negative campaign tactics and controversial ads. Expect those folks to be using their considerable, bruising talents on Giuliani, his pronouncements and anything in his past record that can be publicized and accentuated.
UPDATE: Giuliani is proving to be quite popular among conservatives, according to Glenn Reynolds.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.