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Posted by on Nov 2, 2008 in Politics | 7 comments

Pew Poll: McCain Narrows Obama Lead To Six Points

The Pew Research Center’s final presidential campaign poll finds Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is narrowing the gap with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama. Will critics of the media’s narrative prove correct? Could this be a nail-biter and even end in a McCain victory, despite the sea of predictions that Obama will ace it in the electoral college?

In a report subtitled “McCain Narrows Gap,” Pew reports:

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

The survey finds indications that turnout may well be significantly higher than in 2004, when voting participation reached its highest point in nearly four decades. The new poll projects increased rates of voting among young people and African Americans, who strongly favor Obama. But it also finds signs of greater likely turnout across the board.

The big question then becomes: so how are the undecideds expected to go?

In the campaign’s final week, McCain is getting the boost that Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,995 registered voters to those most likely to vote. Among all registered voters, Obama leads by 50% to 39%. His lead had been 16 points among registered voters (52% to 36%) in Pew’s previous survey, conducted Oct. 23-26.

Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.

Democrats: don’t buy your tickets to the inauguration just yet. Republicans: don’t print up your “SARAH IN 2012!!” bumper stickers just yet. Tuesday could be a day of suspense — and it could shape up that Tuesday night could be a long evening. On the other hand: Obama’s lead is not within a poll’s typical margin of error.

Meanwhile, some other polls released today say this:

*TIPP (which did well in 2004) now has Obama ahead by only 2 percent.

*Obama is 7 points ahead in CNN’s final poll.

*Gallup Daily Tracking has Obama with an 8 point lead among “traditional likely voters.”

*Zogby says one day doesn’t a lead make and that even though McCain was ahead in its Friday tracking Obama has a 5.7 percent lead (NOTE: The Drudge Report had SCREAMING HEADLINES about McCain being in the lead but this poll has merited a small link further down on the page.)

UPDATE: You can see Obama’s lead narrowing in the Real Clear Politics average of polls — now down to 6.4 percent. SEE DETAILS OF VARIOUS POLLS HERE. Also see RCP’s Electoral College Map HERE which already has Obama over the top.

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