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Posted by on Dec 6, 2011 in At TMV, International | 1 comment

Is China’s Rise Inevitable?

Jack Goldstone presents the case here that China, under current trends, cannot become the economic behemoth many expect it to be. And Russia’s growth has stagnated. But, he does see growth in the economies of Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico, as well as Brazil and India, the B and I of the BRIC formulation.

He’s absolutely right, I think, that innovation doesn’t blossom in repressive environments. China’s government has, essentially, been trying to buy off their people with baubles. But the data Goldstone presents suggests that, absent changes in policies and demographics, the government isn’t going to have enough “hush money” to quell the desire for freedom in China for long.

[I blog on completely different subjects on my personal blog.]

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  • davidpsummers

    At some point China’s export driven growth will break down. The bigger China’s share of the world economy is, the less it can rely on exports to other countries to sustain it. They will need to transition to a new model. How well this will work remains to be seen.

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