Jack Goldstone presents the case here that China, under current trends, cannot become the economic behemoth many expect it to be. And Russia’s growth has stagnated. But, he does see growth in the economies of Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico, as well as Brazil and India, the B and I of the BRIC formulation.
He’s absolutely right, I think, that innovation doesn’t blossom in repressive environments. China’s government has, essentially, been trying to buy off their people with baubles. But the data Goldstone presents suggests that, absent changes in policies and demographics, the government isn’t going to have enough “hush money” to quell the desire for freedom in China for long.[I blog on completely different subjects on my personal blog.]