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Posted by on May 31, 2010 in International | 0 comments

Is a NATO Civil War Imminent?

I’m not going to get into the details of the Israeli-Gaza flotilla incident or the moral repercussions therein. I see nothing but propaganda from both sides and i don’t know if we’ll ever know what really happened.

One thing that HAS happened, however, is that Israel has possibly severed its relationship with its one serious Muslim ally: Turkey. In fact, Turkey has threatened to send another flotilla accompanied by the Turkish Navy.

Let’s assume for a moment that this is not posturing or bluster.

What would happen if Turkey really did send another flotilla guarded by its navy?

See, there’s a problem here: Turkey is a member of NATO. And according to NATO’s founding charter, an attack against one member nation is considered an attack against all NATO nations.

So, if Israel decides to forcibly board and re-direct a Turkish flotilla backed by the Turksih Navy, Israel will have, in essence, declared war against NATO.

And we all know that the biggest player in NATO – and the biggest military and financial backer of Israel – is the United States.

So what happens if Israel gets into a military confrontation with NATO-based Turkey? And what would the other NATO nations say? Even arch-Thatcherite William Hague in the UK has condemned Israel.

Would this mean a conflict BETWEEN NATO nations?

That’s not likely to happen. But what will happen is anyone’s guess.

And note that none of this hinges on PR or the global media. It’s about Turkey. The Erdogan government is far less sympathetic to Israel than prior governments. Up until now, however, that has figured little in practical Israeli-Turkish relations. An armed conflict would be something else entirely.

But, hey, at least it takes the media’s attention away from the oil spill!

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