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Posted by on Jul 2, 2012 in Politics | 6 comments

Gallup: Obama Widens Lead Over Romney 48% to 43%

The latest Gallup Poll has President Barack Obama widening his lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney:

President Barack Obama has maintained at least a slight margin over Mitt Romney in each of the last six Gallup Daily tracking averages, including a 48% to 43% lead among registered voters in the July 2 report, spanning June 25-July 1.

Obama’s current five-percentage-point lead is the same as the margin reported three days ago, and marks his biggest lead in Gallup Daily tracking since April, when for two reporting periods he had a seven-point lead over Romney. The current stretch of six days in which Obama has led Romney in each day’s average is also the longest such streak for the president since April.

Romney has not been ahead of Obama by more than two points since mid-May, and Romney’s largest lead of five points occurred in April.

Each Gallup Daily tracking seven-day average includes more than 3,000 registered voters.

The current June 25-July 1 average includes four days of interviewing after the June 28 Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act. Obama’s prior five-point lead, from June 22-28, was based on interviews conducted mostly before the decision. Therefore, although the Supreme Court decision may be a reason for Obama’s currently more positive position, he was gaining on Romney prior to the decision.

The presidential race has exhibited a general tendency this year to regress to parity — each candidate has averaged about 46% support since Gallup Daily tracking began April 11. Thus, it remains to be seen if the two candidates will move back into a more even position in the days and weeks ahead, or if Obama is able to sustain his lead for a longer period of time.

But — as we say over and over — remember that one poll does not a trend make. You have to look at a number of polls. It’s always useful to look at the trending, so here’s’s graph showing an average of 344 polls. It shows — at this point in time (and polls see-saw) Obama on the ascent and Romney flat:

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Copyright 2012 The Moderate Voice
  • The_Ohioan

    Other reports have Romney in the lead in 15 battleground states. Which means….

  • @The-Ohioan
    I haven’t seen any of those polls – do you have some examples?

  • rudi

    Click of the Pollster link and check out the states listed. I also heard this report, but the report didn’t include any raw data. Pollster has it tightening, but I don’t see any Romney leads in a majority of Pollster state composite data.

  • The_Ohioan
  • rudi

    If I read the CNN poll correctly, it’s an aggregate of the fifteen states.

    The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

    The polling from Pollster shows Obama ahead in most of those 15 states. That polling is by state, not an aggregate of the 15 states.

  • The_Ohioan

    I’m not qualified to determine which if any polls are correct. In fact I’m avoiding polls until October or so. But this was mentioned by Mark Halperin who does know something about campaigns. I hope you are right.

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