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Posted by on Sep 18, 2008 in Politics | 6 comments

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Widens Lead Over McCain To 4 Points

The latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll offers more evidence that Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s convention bounce is returning bungee-jump style to pre-convention levels amid the worsening situation on Wall Street, pundits’ thumbs-down for his negative campaign and a host of controversial flubs.

Gallup reports:

The Sept. 15-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with a 48% to 44% lead over John McCain among registered voters, marking the first time that Obama has held a statistically significant lead in two weeks.

The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain. There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied. But beginning this week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.

Separate Gallup tracking shows that consumer confidence has become significantly more negative as this week progressed, signifying that Americans are clearly paying attention to the major problems facing Wall Street and the big drops in the stock market on Monday and Wednesday.

McCain is making news right now, but the wrong kind. So it’s unlikely his numbers will go up soon, barring some big unforeseen development or Obama mistake.

McCain’s comments that the economy was fundamentally-sound was first-finessed by Vice Presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin, until McCain, in the face of widespread criticism and a new Obama campaign ad, made a virtually-total about-face. Then came a minor international incident in which McCain basically implied he wouldn’t be interested in meeting with Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister. Critics pounced and the McCain campaign stood by the comments even though some believe McCain was confused about the country about which he was talking. McCain’s camp said he knew full well who he was talking about. So this controversy –which can’t help McCain image or win him independent voters beyond his GOP base — will stay alive for a while.

Then he said he’d fire the SEC Chairman as President, which ABC suggests is a flub since a President doesn’t have the power to remove the SEC Chairman. And the McCain campaign insists he does. Expect some upcoming stories to definitively explain the reality and, if McCain is proven wrong, it’ll be a story (if he’s proven right, the story will appear as a small blip).

There’s a flow in political campaigns — and right now the flow is against McCain, but this could change. Meanwhile, a new poll shows Obama taking the lead in Indiana.

See RCP’s list of polls here. Its average of polls now has Obama ahead of McCain by 2.2 percentage points.

UPDATE:
There seems to be a shift in other polls.

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Copyright 2008 The Moderate Voice
  • Cortney

    SARAH PALIN PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    Ms. Palin I am sure Is Great As Governor Of Alaska

    Sarah Palin as Vice President is really not the problem. The problem is that given McCains health issues and age Ms. Palin could in deed become the President of the United States.

    Please look at her resume. Check theses facts on the web

    Beauty queen
    After changing colleges 5 times she did graduate with a journalism degree
    For a short time a sports reporter
    4 years on a small town () city council
    6 years as the mayor of a small town () with less than 7,000 people
    20 months as the governor of a state with only 650,000 people.
    On the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission

    You say Mr. Obama is inexperienced?
    Mr. Obama spent 3 years as a community organizer (Not important)
    Attended Harvard Law School,
    Passed the bar on the first try (Hillary had to take it three times),
    Graduated in the top portion of his Harvard Law class
    President of the Harvard Law Review,
    Created a voter registration drive that registered 150,000 new voters,
    12 years as a Constitutional Law professor
    8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people
    Chairman of the state Senate’s Health and Human Services committee
    4 years in the United States Senate representing state of 3 million people
    Sponsored 131 bills
    served on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran’s Affairs committees.

    SARAH PALIN PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    SCARY VERY SCARY.

    I Can See It Now:
    Todd Palin as the First “Dude” In the White House Hosting dignitaries and diplomats from around the world.

  • Cawren — Just want to point out that maybe you’re on the wrong thread. This one is about McCain and Obama polls.

    Anyway, I guess the convention bump was inevitable, and the VP was pretty exciting (scary, but exciting). Now: back to reality, where our economy is in shambles, our civil rights eroding, US soldiers and Iraqi civilians still dying in the Middle East, and no, McCain is not the “change” candidate.

  • Apt604

    “So it’s unlikely his numbers will go up soon, barring some big unforeseen development or Obama mistake.”

    And rest assured, with a month and a half to go, there will almost certainly be Obama mistakes . . . If not, the news networks will conjure up one, in an effort to keep this race tight.

  • Having posted a few “off-topic” comments myself, I wonder if TMV might consider a “Reader Posts” section such as that at Talking Points Memo. Those unfamiliar with the concept might want to take a look. Some of their commenters are excellent writers and a “recommend this” button lets those judged best by readers to rise to the “recommended reader posts” sidebar. I think it has merit. What say you?

  • DLS

    Only scary to the mentally ill or otherwise defective. So it be noted.

    * * *

    [yawn] There is no need to hyperventilate about the poll of the hour or minute. Just wait a few more days to see how much Palin’s notoriety fades and if Obama manages to recover from his, and his campaign’s, recent blunders. I’m also going to be curious how September’s donation figures compare against August’s.

  • StockBoySF

    DLS, “There is no need to hyperventilate about the poll of the hour or minute. Just wait a few more days to see how much Palin’s notoriety fades and if Obama manages to recover from his, and his campaign’s, recent blunders. I’m also going to be curious how September’s donation figures compare against August’s.”

    I totally agree. It will be interesting to see if McCain drops below 40% before the debates and if he does I wonder how he will react….

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