Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are tied in Nevada in a new poll, which can’t be good news for the Clinton camp which had felt its chances for winning would significantly increase once they got past New Hampshire. Right now, all signs are pointing to another nail biter — or another upset:
Nevadans expected to participate in next week’s Democratic presidential caucus are evenly split between the party’s two candidates, according to a new Washington Free Beacon poll.
The poll shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders tied at 45 percent each among likely caucusgoers. Clinton narrowly edges Sanders among those who have completely made up their mind. But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her.
The survey was conducted between Feb. 8, the day before the New Hampshire Democratic primary, and Feb. 10, the day after. It shows no bump for Sanders after his 22-point victory in the nation’s first primary; by a single point, respondents the following day said they supported Clinton.
Clinton’s problem:
Of the 10 percent of undecided respondents, 87 percent say that Clinton’s failure to disclose foreign government donations to her family’s foundation make them less likely to support her. More than three-quarters say the same about her support for the 2008 Wall Street bailouts and subsequent paid speeches at investment banks.
..In the Washington Free Beacon poll, a 47 percent plurality of undecideds say that Sanders is the more trustworthy candidate. Just 10 percent say the same about Clinton.
As it has become increasingly clear that Nevada could go Sanders, the Clinton team has started lowering expectations and run into an accuracy problem:
Clinton’s campaign has worked to downplay expectations in Nevada ahead of the Democratic caucuses there. “There’s going to be a narrowing in [South Carolina and Nevada]—we’re clear-eyed about that,” campaign spokesman Brian Fallon said this week.
Fallon falsely claimed that Nevada is 80 percent white, suggesting that Sanders does better among white voters while Clinton leads among minorities. In fact, the state is roughly 51 percent white.
Polling in Nevada has been sparse, but the Free Beacon survey suggests that Sanders has managed to close a double-digit gap in the state.
And a reminder again, that polls are a snapshot in time. The importance is what a trend shows and even then the polls can be wrong: a poll can motivate the campaign and supporters of one candidate to work harder to get out the vote, or cause supporters in another campaign to feel a bit complacent and not vote. Plus, in overall terms, Clinton remains ahead in superdelegates — which is no guarantee that it’ll save a candidacy rejected at the polls, but they can tip the scales in a close race.
graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.