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Posted by on Sep 30, 2008 in Economy, Politics | 10 comments

Fox/Rasmussen Poll: Obama Gaining In Key Battleground States

A new poll finds Democratic Sen. Barack Obama is gaining ground in some key battleground states in his battle with GOP Sen. John McCain for the White House:

The latest FOX News/Rasmussen Reports state polls show that Barack Obama has increased his lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania and Virginia. The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado, Florida and Ohio.

Barack Obama has gained ground in five new state polls — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia — compared to previous Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.

In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.

In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and John McCain 47%.

The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%).

National polls and other state polling conducted by Rasmussen Reports indicate Obama gained ground before last Friday night’s debate, probably as a result of the economic turmoil that has dominated the news. Since the debate, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows little change in the national numbers.

Regardless of the timing and the cause, however, the overriding trend from the past week is a shift in the battleground states that favors Obama.

McCain faces a variety of problems: the worsening economic crisis, the failure of the bailout which he touted as his having helped pass (before it passed), his own campaign stumbles and missteps — and the continuing nosedive popularity ratings of President George Bush…who has now set yet another southward record for himself.

Twenty-seven percent of Americans approve of the job George Bush is doing as president, the lowest rating of his tenure, a Gallup poll indicates.

Bush’s approval rating is down 4 percentage points from the 31 percent he had in a Gallup Poll taken before the financial crisis buffeting Wall Street intensified, pollsters said.

The latest poll, released Tuesday, was conducted before the House voted against a $700 billion plan to bail out U.S. financial markets

The timing of the decline indicates the credit crisis and government’s response to it are responsible for the low showing, the Princeton, N.J., polling agency said. Results indicate only 28 percent of respondents approved and 68 percent disapproved of Bush’s response to the financial crisis.

Among Republicans, Bush’s job rating fell to 64.

The next possible “game changer”: Thursday’s debate between Vice Presidential candidates Democratic Sen. Joe Biden and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.

Usually Veep debates don’t matter but this one could: Palin started out as a plus on the ticket but her negatives have continued to rises amid news reports filling in blanks about her and her unimpressive showing in mostly-controlled interview settings. Her press has been so bad that if she shows up and gives even a respectively flat debate performance the narrative will be that she exceeded expectations. And nearly four days of debate prep (most assuredly on content, style and prepared zingers) is likely to have helped. Will she become a big positive again for McCain with all but Republican base voters?

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  • superdestroyer

    The real quesiton is whether the Democrats will get 60 seats in the Senate and make the Republicans irrelevant to politicis. Juding by the incompetence of the McCain campaign, it is looking more possible.

  • DLS

    Super D: Did you see my note about the first (presidential) debate and how McCain imitated Dole by pulling out (I heard him refer to, at least) his veto pen? (Will he now begin pulling out the veto pen during every subsequence appearance he makes, like Dole with his well-worn copy of the Tenth Amendment Dole often disrespected as routinely as everyone else in Washington?) At least McCain’s speech tricks are now limited to interjections of “my friends” rather than speaking of himself in third person.

  • superdestroyer


    It does not matter what McCain does because he is not going to win. McCain still seems like to want to go down as a poorer candidate than Dole.

    However, in looking at, it looks like the most likely number for Democrats in the Seante will be 58 but 60 is within reach.

    Image how insignificant the Republicans will be with Senator Obama sitting in the White House and large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. The real number will be what portion of the GDP will be government be using by the end of the Obama Administration.

  • FlaLady

    Here it is, the video youtube keeps shutting down! Cut, paste and enjoy!

  • StockBoySF

    These polls are out just in time for early voting in eight states that begins today. Including Ohio. Hopefully people will see shifting poll numbers and won’t rush to judgement. They would do well to pause and think about each candidate before casting their vote.

    I’m not suggesting that these people vote for Obama (though I hope they do!) what I am saying is that these people should understand that we are still finding out more about each candidate and absent a critical need to vote now, these people would do well to let the candidates make their cases before voting.

  • StockBoySF

    DLS: “At least McCain’s speech tricks are now limited to interjections of “my friends” rather than speaking of himself in third person.”

    On a personal level I cringe everytime McCain says, “my friends”. He is no friend of mine and it comes across purely as a rhetorical device that is not skillfully delivered.

  • DLS

    Stockster — I suppose McCain stole that line, “my friends,” from Rush Limbaugh. Even Al Franken’s imitation of Rush Limbaugh (“[hufffffffff, puffffffffff], Myyyy Friennnnndsss”) is easier to take than McCain. As others have said for months, McCain is set up to be the next Dole. He’s even pulling props out of his pocket now! It’s Palin that’s keeping him on life support at the moment. I believe if Biden soundly defeats Palin or if Palin has what you might call a Stockdale Moment (or more than one) during the debate, it’s likely over.

    Super D: McCain actually is better than Dole, not in the sense of being any more appealing (he turns off a lot of people and the surreal quality of the GOP convention, separate from the relief-to-delight about the Palin choice, was because everyone was desperate enough to conveniently neglect (I apologize for the wedgey-split infinitive) how controversial and offputting McCain is to real conservatives, to serious partisans, and to the rest of us with non-liberal and default-GOP-frequent leanings. The GOP began this year with the same desperation they had in 2000 and likely will have again in 2012. Seventy years of conditioning and cultural control by the Dems and liberals have made so many voters hooked on entitlements and style over substance, while at the same time the GOP is not — well, to keep it kind, coherent.

    McCain still has a chance to persist through this attrition run of his, but the Energizer Bunny ran out of some juice with this playing-with-postponement that didn’t pay off because the bailout bill was rejected. (Though I’m delighted it was rejected, as it so deserved to be. HURRAH)

  • DLS

    Since celebrities are allowed to run for office and since Al Franken is gunning for a seat in Washington — maybe McCain should have bribed XXXXXX enticed Rush Limbaugh to be his Vice President. (NO, it would never happen, but still, McCain can use the help!)

  • DLS

    “McCain still seems like to want to go down as a poorer candidate than Dole.”

    I don’t know about that, but I do know that currently Obama fans (and Noonan haters) can Savor [tm] the divergence in the following two graphs:

  • DLS

    Superdestroyer: The Iowa Electronic Markets shows good graphs of its Presidential Election Funds (Vote Share and Winner-Take-All). That’s not the only fund open as of now. There also is, for example, a set of Congressional election funds (which also are bets on November’s election results, same as with the Presidential funds and the other subject of interest that has open funds currently, the specific Minnesota Senate election that features a well-known liberal big-mouth, who’s actually somewhat sane when not discussing politics).

    There is no graph for the Congressional funds yet but the prices tell the tale. Here is yesterday’s average price for the three funds. Dem gains in each house of Congress are strongly predicted; Dem control of both houses of Congress is strongly predicted.


    09/30/08 DH.gain08 0.817
    09/30/08 DH.hold08 0.121
    09/30/08 DH.lose08 0.082


    09/30/08 DS.gain08 0.908
    09/30/08 DS.hold08 0.023
    09/30/08 DS.lose08 0.078

    Congress (overall — who controls each house of Congress — the _last_ price of the day, closing price, is listed here because two of the four funds had no average price posted)

    09/30/08 DH_DS08 0.935
    09/30/08 DH_RS08 0.014
    09/30/08 RH_DS08 0.061
    09/30/08 RH_RS08 0.035

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