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Posted by on Dec 8, 2011 in Politics, Society | 5 comments

Extra-Marital and Harassment Allegations Did In The Cain Campaign Pure & Simple

Supporters of Herman Cain have tried to explain away the implosion of his campaign to a variety of factors, including him being an outsider whose campaign was understaffed, but it should be obvious to anyone with elementary math skills that Cain’s problems began with and his campaign ended over allegations of an extra-marital affair and incidents of sexual harassment that became more credible as his denials became more incredible.

Nate Silver, who established himself as the preeminent analyst of polls and voting trends in 2008, writes in a blog post titled “Other Than That, Mr. Cain, How Was the Campaign?” at The New York Times Cain’s polls were headed on a sharp upward trajectory until October 31, when Politico first reported on accusations that he had sexually harassed two women. They then reversed course and embarked upon an equally sharp downward trajectory.

“It is not a whole lot more complicated than that,” Silver writes. “It is possible — I would say somewhat likely — that Mr. Cain’s polls were liable to decline even in the absence of the scandal.”

The problem, Silver says, is that the scandal intervened, Cain’s polling took a Big 180, and that makes coming to any conclusions about other factors extremely dubious.

“Some of the write-ups about Mr. Cain’s campaign have only mentioned the allegations of sexual harassment and infidelity in passing,” Silver concludes, “Which is a bit like asking ‘other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?’ ”

But The Onion may have said it best with this headline:


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Copyright 2011 The Moderate Voice
  • adelinesdad

    How do you reconcile this with what you’ve written before?

    I can respect someone who can admit he was wrong, so if that’s what you are doing, kudos to you. Otherwise, I’m interested to know how the GOP rejection of an apparent sexual harasser and philanderer still illustrates their disdain for women.

  • adelinesdad:

    Cain’s race had nothing to do with his fall from grace. The only connection between the two posts is that they both were about Cain.

    The earlier post concerned his improbable embrace by a white and substantially Southern party base that is a last bastion of demonstrable racism in America and this post about alternative explanations for his fall probably being bogus.

    Incidentally, Cain continues to lie through his teeth about Ginger White, whose detailed accounts of their 13-year affair — which she acknowledges was entirely sexual — are believable.

  • adelinesdad


    While your previous post was primarily about racism, there was a significant section regarding how the GOP defense/acceptable of Cain illustrated their sexism also. This was the section that I objected to in the original post and would like to get your updated thoughts on. In particular, this quote:

    That the serial allegations that Cain came on to women in unwelcome ways and in one case groped a woman in return for the promise of a job have hardly affected his standing in the polls speaks volumes about the GOP’s disdain for women…

  • Allen

    Only goes to show you that an engineered slander scandel against any candidate can determine who will not be president. Facts are not required. Thus democracy is not real, but an illusion.

  • cjjack


    Democracy is not in danger because one person is felled by scandal. If it were, then our democracy would have ceased to exist a long time ago.

    With regards to the requirement of facts, I’d counter that your post is itself entirely fact-free. There is no evidence whatsoever that Cain’s fall from grace was “engineered,” and you’ve done nothing to establish that Cain was in any way slandered.

    The illusion, if any, is that Cain was actually going to be win, and that he was prevented from doing so by a conspiracy. He wasn’t. He was hoisted on his own petard.

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