Elections are Fun! (If You Like Bumpy Rides…)
A temporary election worker allegedly filled in a straight Republican ticket where voters had left blank preferences. It is unclear how many ballots were affected, but, as Blue Oregon notes, this is not the first time Clackamas County has come under scrutiny for foul play. ...Think Progress
Jonathan Chait thinks the game is over and Obama has won. Pretty much. He goes through the most recent polls and notices the number of pro-Romney pollsters and commentators who are backing away…
One lagging indicator of the state of the race is the rate at which conservative pundits begin edging slowly out of the Mitt Romney bunker and admitting that maybe the polls aren’t skewed. …Jonathan Chait, Daily Intel.
If Obama does indeed win, a lot of us will probably have the same reaction as this commenter:
I for one know there won’t be any dancing and laughing in my household when Obama wins this time. There will be a huge, almost absurd amount of relief. Like breaking a siege from barbarians who don’t take prisoners.
If you’re a Republican in America, you’re in a very, very special group that clings to very, very special beliefs.
A staggering 68 percent of registered Republican voters stated that they believe demonic possession is real. Meanwhile, only 48 percent of self-identified Republicans believe in another equally if not more scary natural phenomenon: climate change. …Alternet/Salon
Still haven’t voted? Still thinking you might vote for this weird party?
Mr. Burns is voting for Romney. “As binders full of women lay on a side table next to him, Burns declares, ‘I have to say that despite those unimaginably horrible good job numbers, we’re feeling pretty confident.'” …The Hill
Nate Silver scores Romney’s “Chance of Winning” at 16.3%. The latest jobs report, Silver writes, probably makes an Obama win a sure thing.
There is not much time for the polls to change, and if they are right, Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. But Mr. Obama’s advantage is marginal enough that Mitt Romney could win if the polls miss a couple of points high on Mr. Obama in the swing states.
What this jobs report perhaps does do is remove Mr. Romney’s best opportunity to shift the polls in his direction before the election. We’re very likely to wake up on Tuesday knowing that the polls have Mr. Obama as the Electoral College favorite. We’ll have to wait until Tuesday night (or longer) to know whether the polls have it right.
But if they do, and Mr. Obama wins narrowly, the outcome will be broadly in line with what the jobs numbers predict. …538
When you examine the early vote and the election day vote as separate issues, you find they are … separate issues.
Obama is ahead in one; Romney in the other.
“As with the recent NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa and Wisconsin, Obama is benefiting from early voters in Ohio and Florida. In the Sunshine State, 63 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, and Obama is winning them, 53 percent to 46 percent. But Romney is ahead among Election Day voters in Florida, 52 percent to 40 percent. In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent. Yet Romney is up among Election Day voters in the Buckeye State, 52 percent to 42 percent.”
Bottom line? Voting may be fun, but the results may not be.