A new poll by the Los Angeles Times has some troubling tidbits for Republicans in California — and throughout the nation. They’re steadily losing the battle for votes of voters from ethnic groups — and the young:
California right now is an extreme example of the nation, to be sure: more ethnically mixed and younger than most states, and riven for 20 years by a hobbling GOP civil war that now is surfacing dramatically elsewhere in the country. But if California is on the leading edge, as opposed to an outlier, the poll serves as confirmation that long-term problems loom for Republicans.
And there are no indications that the GOP nationally intends to do things differently, even though the party’s center and center right is now striking back. More on the poll:
Take party registration: Among white California voters, almost four in 10 are Democrats and four in 10 are Republicans. But among Latinos 55% are Democrats and only 15% are Republicans. Among black voters, 76% are Democrats and 4% are Republicans. There were not enough Asian voters to accurately assess, but overall, minority voters are 54% Democratic to 14% Republican. (Just more than one-quarter of minority voters are registered independents, a group that generally votes Democratic in California.)
The collision between ethnicity and age is even more lethal. Six in 10 white voters are over 50, making them prized in the present but not dependable in future decades. The reverse is true for Latinos, 64% of whom are age 49 or younger. Overall, among all voters, 35% of those 50 and over are Republicans; of those younger, only 23% were.
And then there’s this:
Already those younger and minority voters — 38% of the voter pool — are propping up Democrats in California. Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown has a positive job approval rating of 55% overall. Among white voters the rating is 51%. Among black voters, it is 61%, Among Latinos, it is 67%.
This continues to stun some, but never surprised me: Jerry Brown is proving to be one of the more popular governors. He may be on Social Security these days, but he seems to be accepted by a wide variety of groups and ages in California both for his policies and his serious, no-games, no higher-ambitions style. MORE:
Other poll findings suggest no end to that imbalance. Asked their political ideology, 52% of those ages 49 and younger describe themselves as liberal, to 40% who say conservative. That is close to the opposite of those over 50, only 47% of whom say they are liberal to 58% conservative.
That may not quite be the situation nationally — but if California is not what is happening nationally with the GOP, it serves as a warning. The old saying “a word to the wise is sufficient,” but there’s no sign the GOP as a party is wise in strategical terms and may find itself feverishly looking for more voter suppression techniques in coming years.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.