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Posted by on Feb 18, 2008 in Politics | 5 comments

Can Obama Win Texas?

The question is perhaps ill-timed. After all, Wisconsin is tomorrow; Texas not for another two weeks. But time is proving no obstacle for some Obama hopefuls in Texas, who have thorough knowledge of the state’s unique primary system.

Consider this post by Phillip Martin at Burnt Orange Report. The analysis is well-constructed and seemingly well-informed. The crux of it:

The first thing that should be understood is that while Senator Clinton does have strong support in the Latino community, Latinos will not decide the Texas primary alone. In order for Senator Clinton to win in Texas, she will need a dramatic majority in the South Texas Senate Districts in order to actually gain a delegate advantage in that region — and doing that is harder than it looks.

… Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote.

As of today, Clinton is polling at “only” 50.3 percent in the RCP average for Texas.

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  • rudi

    This is just a single poll and Obamama is at 40%. But the composite average of all polls at has the same results. But the trend line(or slope) shows Obama surging with two weeks to go, on the basis of this trend I say Obamama may actually win in Texas and Billary will be burnt toast.

  • Here’s a different poll, with rather different results: American Research Group

    Given how well polls have been predicting things thus far, I don’t know why we’re even bothering…

  • PaulSilver

    It is not a guaranteed win for Obama here in Texas, but 2,000 showed up to volunteer at the opening of the Austin Texas HQ on Saturday to do what we can.

    If voters are open to be persuaded then they will be contacted several times to hear our pitch.

  • cosmoetica

    I live in Austin, and only Latinos are supporting Hillary. White folk and black folk are big on Obama, and with Big Mac as the GOP rep, I know many Reps have told me they’ll vote to sink Hillary, just to damn the Clintons. Not a single Indy voter (me incl.) is pro-Hillary.

    Right now I say O wins by 2-3% pts, but id the momentum continues, spurred on by the faux plagiarism BS, and Hill’s increasingly pathetic desperation, it could end up between 5 & 10% for O.

  • DLS

    I believe the odds are against it given the trend among Hispanics for Clinton, but you never know — I heard on NPR (yes, I listen to it) Friday that some Hispanics are voting for Obama rather than for Clinton. Moreover, the delegates are awarded proportionately in Texas as in other states, aren’t they, so Obama can win quite a lot of them, particularly in places like Austin, but don’t forget Dallas and probably Houston.

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