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Posted by on Feb 18, 2008 in Politics | 5 comments

Can Obama Win Texas?

The question is perhaps ill-timed. After all, Wisconsin is tomorrow; Texas not for another two weeks. But time is proving no obstacle for some Obama hopefuls in Texas, who have thorough knowledge of the state’s unique primary system.

Consider this post by Phillip Martin at Burnt Orange Report. The analysis is well-constructed and seemingly well-informed. The crux of it:

The first thing that should be understood is that while Senator Clinton does have strong support in the Latino community, Latinos will not decide the Texas primary alone. In order for Senator Clinton to win in Texas, she will need a dramatic majority in the South Texas Senate Districts in order to actually gain a delegate advantage in that region — and doing that is harder than it looks.

… Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote.

As of today, Clinton is polling at “only” 50.3 percent in the RCP average for Texas.

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