The rumblings of the RNC establishment’s tinkering with the Republican Party nomination process is now in high gear. The exit of Marco Rubio, and the non-existant path of John Kasich to win delegates, has placed the K Street and Capitol Hill powers that be are in full Star Trek “Red Alert” mode.
Most of the stories which have been written have dealt with the issues of diverting delegates (not allowing Trump to win 1237 in the primary process) or by disallowing delegates selected in open primary states. Rule 16(d)(2) states “Only persons eligible to vote who are deemed as a matter of public record to be Republicans pursuant to state law or, if voters are not enrolled by party, by Republican Party rules of a state, shall participate in any primary election held for the purpose of electing delegates or alternate delegates to the national convention…” This rule would seem to negate a sizeable chunk of Trump’s delegate lead to date and thereby handing the nomination to Ted Cruz. However, politics is not just about who you can exclude because of the rules; it also has a great deal to do with who you are comfortable with.
I simply do not see the K Street / Capitol Hill establishment wing of the party taking the nomination away from Donald Trump and giving it to Ted Cruz. If you are going to effectively have a bloodless coup, it does not make any sense why the establishment would give the keys to the kingdom to the one anti-establishment Republican left running. I see a different outcome during a contested convention in Cleveland, if Rubio had won in Florida he would have been the compromise candidate; however Rubio’s collaspse has opened the door for Jeb Bush as the concensus candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton.
The K Street / Capitol Hill crowd want Trump and Cruz to fight each other to a stalmate of sorts. They want Kasich to stay in to divid up the anti-Trump vote so Cruz will not be a threat to win the nomination. If the RNC has anything to say about it, neither Trump nor Cruz will be allowed to be the Republican nominee for President of the United States. The plan is already written, the players are in place, the only thing left to do is to wait until Cleveland until all hell breaks loose.
Bush vs. Clinton, Round III – the more things change… well, you know the rest.
Faculty, Department of Political Science, Towson University. Graduate from Liberty University Seminary.