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Posted by on Nov 3, 2009 in At TMV, Breaking News, Economy, Media, Politics | 10 comments

UPDATE: A Tiny Ripple Does Not Make A Tsunami

Tell your friends you read it here first. Don’t bother watching the wall-to-wall cable television coverage of today’s handful of odd-year elections.

Robert McDonnell, the Republican candidate, will be elected governor of Virginia. Barring a minor miracle, incumbent New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine will lose to Republican Chris Christie. Douglas Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, will trounce Democrat Bill Owens in the 23rd Congressional district of New York.

UPDATE: (12:15 a.m. Wednesday). Actually, Owens pulled it out based on Fox News projections. Folks, two out of three ain’t bad since my chyrstal ball has only 10-50 vision.

Those are the highly hyped races across the nation. Don’t believe for a minute the clucking you hear from Republican faithful. Give them their due and hand them a broom for the clean sweep. Too early for a trend, guys.

The significance of these races are not the epicenter of a tsunami. It is more like a gentle storm wave lapping on the shores of a political chapter written in stone years ago. That is, the party in power in Congress invariably loses seats during the mid-term elections which, by the way, won’t occur until a year from now for the rest of the nation.

Virginians are especially in lockstep with that axiom, again invariably electing a governor from the opposite party in power in the nation’s capitol. McDonnell could see a sea change in his favor in the 100 members of the Virginia House of Delegates, its lower house. The current make-up is 53 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 1 vacancy. The senate’s 40-members are not up for reelection until 2011. There, the Democrats hold 21-19 majority. If you are looking at trends, forget McDonnell and look at any party shuffling in the House of Delegates.

By last weekend, Corzine pulled within two points of the Republican Christie and will need a flat-out blitz by Democratic voters in Newark to eke out a victory. The New Jersey legislature now consists of 23 Democrats and 17 Republicans in the senate and 48 Democrats and 32 Republicans in the General Assembly. New Jersey, a solid blue state, is unlikely to witness a change in power in its legislature. Chalk this up to Corzine’s unpopularity of raising taxes, job approval ratings below 40%, state unemployment and his former association with one of the nation’s bailed out financial institutions, Goldman Sachs.

Other than the bizarre way it unfolded, the fact a conservative independent would lose the 23rd congressional seat in New York is surprising. A Democrat hasn’t won in that district since the Civil War, or at least a very long time.

The general thinking among the pols is these elections are a referendum on President Barack Obama. I say it’s a bit premature to cast doubts on the president’s agenda at this early stage. Next November is a different story. By then we will have a clear picture on the success or failure of the health reform movement, climate change, Afghanistan and the economy.

As of now, the biggest drawback to Obama and the Democratic congress is unemployment and excessive government spending programs. The New York Times offers these thumbnail sketches of other races around the nation, including several involving same-sex marriage which is a test to see how much clout the conservatives swing.

In the coming months, it will be exciting to watch conservatives flex their muscles — actually it’s more like outshouting their more moderate Republican brethren. Reports the Los Angeles Times:

The rebellion that drove a moderate Republican (Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23rd) off the ballot in a special House election is sending a clear message to the party leadership and its candidates: Ignore the conservative grass roots at your peril.

I find the conservative civil war with Republicans intriguing. You can bet that proverbial paycheck by next year there will be more than the reported 20% registered voters considering themselves Republicans. But even registration in the high 30 percentile rarely wins elections.

Their propaganda machine is in full throat and framing the national debate in their favor in which we see Newt Gingrich as the voice of reason and the Sarah Palins and her faithful “me too” follower Tim Pawlenty hammering away from the far right. Of course, it backfired in the 23rd with voters rejecting Hoffman, possibly because he didn’t live in the district and was out of touch on local issues. This proves that all politics are local. Right Mrs. Palin and Mr. Pawlenty?

The biggest thing about midterm elections is apathy. Those millions of new voters thrilled by the campaign of the first black president will be sitting this one out. Why? I don’t know other than there’s no presidential standard bearer. It’s always been that way.

This midterm election cycle is even worse, especially in the rural areas. The reason? It’s the economy, stupid. Again the Los Angeles Times gives us a clue from rural America.

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Copyright 2009 The Moderate Voice
  • archangel

    “it’s the economy stupid”

    never better said. LAT on rural america? Priceless catch Jer, thanks!

    Your calls are great. Do you rate the ponies too? maybe we could, you know, make some extra $ to like, you know, buy medicine?

  • Silhouette

    Don’t go to the polls, don’t vote. Just save the gas. Stay home. It’s an off-year election. Don’t send the GOP a fatal message by letting them know how you feel today. Be good little sheep.

    That’s all the GOP has left, hope that people don’t vote or watch the coverage and get excited about being part of the process. They know, the more people that get excited = the more people that will vote “not-republican/conservative”

  • casualobserver

    I might be willing to assign some credibility to your opinion that these 3 elections do not necessarily represent anything significant if your name wasn’t listed on an editorial board that has for the last 9 months been saying the Republican Party/conservative philosophy and its candidates are no longer viable to win any election.I will also be prone to agree that the majority of voters won’t be swayed by any spin that comes out tonight or tomorrow from the Republican Party but it is also already rather obvious that those same voters aren’t swayed by any spin voiced here at TMV either.

  • Davebo

    The significance of these races are not the epicenter of a tsunami.

    It could be a start of one. A wave of enthusiasm among conservatives who begin to believe they really can gain power without all those RINO’s (read GOP).

    I certainly hope it does.

  • garyknowz1

    But who’re the RINOs?

    I cannot help but be amused at this struggle for a name. Some call McCain, Snowe, Collins, or other moderates “RINOS.” However, perhaps they are the RINOs, and McCain and the moderates are the real Republicans. Of course the extreme right would never admit that, but who are they to judge?

  • archangel

    mcdonnell took it Jer. one duck.

  • archangel

    christie too, Jer. two ducks.

  • JeffersonDavis

    Not so quick, there, folks. With 72% of the vote in – Hoffman is getting flogged by Owens by 5%. Hey…. 2 out of 3 ain’t bad either.

    Looks like the Scozzafava endorsement helped a bit, huh? Of course, there are several “conservative” precincts that have not been counted yet. They are more rural and tend to hold more conservative votes. I guess we’ll see tomorrow for the true skinny.

    • jkremmers

      I’ll take two out of three most days. Voters in the 23rd are smarter than we pundits gave them credit. — Jer

      • JeffersonDavis

        “Voters in the 23rd are smarter than we pundits gave them credit.”

        I agree. “Conventional” political wisdom would say that Hoffman would win.

        This may be a case of the voters being fed-up with the political games in which both parties engage. Instead of a “referendum on Obama” or a “referendum within the GOP” it could be a “referendum of political upheaval. That would gel with Congress’s 20% approval rating (or lower) over the past 2 decades.

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