Keith Olbermann leaves MSNBC. Sarah Palin’s TV show lost some of its initial boffo ratings (and her poll numbers sink). Glenn Beck is losing advertisers and ratings. Is what we’re seeing the “collapse of the wingnuts” and America edging slowly away from hyperpartisanship? John Avlon, writing in The Daily Beast, argues it is:
Keith Olbermann’s abrupt signoff last night just might signify a break in the hyperpartisan media fever that has afflicted America for the past few years.
Because beneath the rumors of palace intrigue and difficult behavior stands a stark fact: Keith Olbermann’s ratings were down over the past 12 months, especially among the coveted, non-shut-in, 25-to-54 demographic. He’s not the only one—Glenn Beck’s ratings have eroded, along with his advertisers. Sarah Palin’s approval ratings have also similarly plummeted during her foray into the murky world where politics meets reality TV.
The American people are smart. They’ve gotten sick of the predictable hyperpartisan talking points and canned anger. This is Paddy Chayefsky’s revenge—Howard Beale’s appeal became real over the past years. But we’ve slowly come to our senses and flipped around the catchphrase, saying “you’re mad as hell, and we’re not going to take it anymore.”
He then points to the trio’s loss of market share:
Here’s a snapshot side-by-side comparison of their slide: On January 20th of last year,
Olbermann reached an estimated 251,000 people aged 25-to-54 at 8 p.m., according to data kept by TVNewser.com. Exactly one year later, this past Thursday, he reached only 198,000—a decline of nearly 20 percent.
Beck’s collapse was even steeper over the same period. On January 20th of 2010, he was flying high at a point of maximum influence coincident with Tea Party enthusiasm, reaching 965,000 in the 24-to-55 demographic. On 1/20/11, Beck reached roughly one-third that number at 5 p.m.—only 377,000.
To be sure, even at their reduced rates of viewership, both men were leaders at their respective networks. But the trend lines are clear—both hosts were trending down by double digits in the first four months of last year—and comforting from an independent’s perspective.
Sarah Palin’s transformation from VP nominee to queen of the conservative populists and increasingly off-key partisan caricature also accelerated over the past year. A new CNN poll found that 56 percent of all Americans view her unfavorably—with that rating rocketing up among women, and independent voters 14 points in the last month alone.
It’s worth noting by comparison that President Obama saw a 15-point jump in approval among independents during the past month, aided by his bipartisan outreach during the lame-duck session and his speech at the Tucson memorial. In her taped remarks released that same day, Palin made a mistake often replicated by media figures and opinion anchors—drenching a national event with narcissism. And in the New Hampshire GOP straw poll yesterday, Palin got a paltry 7 percent, one fifth of Mitt Romney’s total.
And:
So Keith Olbermann’s reign at MSNBC is now over. Glenn Beck’s contract is closing out at Fox and despite his popularity with the Tea Party, he’s had a hard time attracting advertisers because of his unhinged exhortations, caught in a self-made trap of confusing insight with incitement. Sarah Palin’s once-dreamed-of path to the presidency after cashing in post-governorship seems similarly cloudy. She might be able to win a caucus but it’s mathematically impossible to win a general election when 60 percent of the electorate say they would never consider voting for you and growing numbers of conservatives say you’re not ready for the job. The fact that all three of these figures were featured on the cover of Wingnuts [Avlon’s book] is a coincidence. But they were chosen because they were the best-known faces of the problems I wanted to examine in the book—extreme partisanship and the cycle of incitement that was dividing our nation instead of trying to unite it. All three of them have profited spectacularly from polarization. They are part of a larger apparatus that has made our politics increasingly feel like a cult, selling Kool-Aid to the party faithful and condemning anyone who questions the ideological line as weak or worse.
Avlon argues that although this kind of politics and political rhetoric is not on the serious ropes, polls indicate that many Americans — particularly independent voters — may be tiring of it.
I’d argue that he is correct on this plus another factor: there truly is a borrrrrrrring aspect to the same kind of rhetorical tools pulled out of the ideological and polemical toolboxes by these three figures (over and over and over and over) who inspire such intense loyalty on the part of some and loathing on the part of others.
For instance, I have long noted that Olbermann’s “Special Comment” — a special extended commentary usually expressing outrage — was indeed special and notable and downright media news/blogworthy when he first started them. But then he did so many that it seemed indignation by rote and was hardly “special” anymore.
Similarly, Beck’s schtick and Palin’s (predictable) schtick sparks loyalty bordering on political co-dependency to an extent that you have to seriously wonder if their fans need to enter a 12-step program to break away from them. (“Hi. My name is John and I am a Glenn Beck Parrot.”)
But the problem for all three is this: just as Palin has problems expanding her constituency, there seems to be a ceiling on how far you can go with this kind of approach. All three are talented in what they do, in how they communicate and connect with those who idolize them. But in political terms, they have not shown that they can constantly grow and build. Rather, they seemingly hit political and broadcast ceilings that could only go so far.
And herein lies the dilemma for the parties as well. They can’t win elections by just holding onto their conservative or liberal bases. They’ve got to attract some cross-overs. Which means some c-o-m-p-r-o-m-i-s-e and willingness to aggregate interests. Which is where the independent voters come in. And although Barack Obama may continue to be criticized by the GOP right and the Democratic left, as Avlon notes, he is now winning back independent voters.
To grow an audience, Beck, Palin and Obermann would have to attract more independent thinkers and not just their existing group of partisans and bloggers who quote them without attribution or recycle their arguments when they write or talk about politics. Palin’s polls numbers have fallen yet again which underlines one clear fact about her: she has shown an inability and a lack of interest in expanding her constituency.
It’s always said in entertainment that most acts have a certain shelf life and then they start to decline.
Is this truly a sign that polarizing political entertainment talk and polarizing politics may have peaked and — if not on the wane — will not expand any further?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.