It’s High Noon now for President Barack Obama and the Democratic party’s dream of health care reform.
Many analysists say it is now and if not necessarily “or never,” then now or for many years — or a generation. But the past 24 hours brought some good news for those who seek to enact the controversial program: the measure picked up key support yesterday from balking parts of the Democratic party’s often self-defeating de facto electoral coalition, raising the prospect that the goal of health care reform that can be built upon is closer than ever.
But another factor lingers in the background: given the fact of how polarized and partisan American politics has become — “post-partisan” is but a dream and “mega-partisan” is the reality — Republicans now threatening to run on repealing whatever could pass signal the beginning of a new era of perpetually warring and dismissive political sides, each out to thwart the other legislatively:
The call for future repeal of any reform that materializes is likely be less an empty political battlecry than a harbinger of what is likely to actually happen when political power (inevitably) shifts from one party to another sometime in the future.
So a form of health care reform looks within Democrat’s grasp…for now.
And if they grasp it, it could be taken out of their hands sometime in the future.
But the Los Angeles Times notes the big developments yesterday — as the Democrats returned to coalition building and placating as they tried to round up the votes for health care reform’s passage:
Lingering fear of defections from the Democratic left — among those who believe the bill does not go far enough to expand access to healthcare — was allayed Wednesday when Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio) became the first liberal opponent of the House bill approved last year to announce that he would support the more restrictive Senate legislation.
“If I can vote for this bill, there are not many others that shouldn’t be able to,” said Kucinich, a leader of the movement to provide universal healthcare by offering the Medicare program to all Americans.
Among social conservatives, the legislation won an important new endorsement from dozens of leaders of Catholic nuns, including a group that says it represents more than 90% of the 59,000 nuns in the United States. That contrasted with the staunch opposition of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, which issued a statement Monday arguing that the bill would not adequately guard against using federal funds for abortion. The nuns disagreed, and so did a retired bishop.
And a senior antiabortion Democrat, Rep. Dale E. Kildee of Michigan, issued a statement Wednesday announcing that he would support the bill.
The political pressure intensified in the Capitol, as the House’s telephone switchboard was jammed with incoming phone calls — apparently about the healthcare bill. Democratic leaders pleaded with uncommitted House members — even if they were inclined to vote “no” — to stand ready to support the bill if their vote would be decisive.
Obama continued calling and meeting with uncommitted Democrats.
AND the LAT also gives these details:
Even before the letter from the Catholic nuns and comments by retired Bishop John E. McCarthy, some of Stupak’s allies had been persuaded to support the bill. Kildee decided that the antiabortion language was strong enough after he met with his priest. Then Kildee, who spent six years in a Catholic seminary, issued a statement and sent a letter to the White House declaring his support.
And late Wednesday, McCarthy, 80, bishop of the Austin, Texas, diocese from 1986 to 2001, told the Associated Press in an interview that he supported the legislation. “This is not an abortion bill,” he said. “This is an extraordinarily important bill providing healthcare for 30 to 40 million people who don’t have it.”
Kucinich faced a different quandary. He has built a national following on his support for universal healthcare, which was central to his unsuccessful bid for the White House in 2008.
But Obama made a personal plea for his support when he visited Ohio on Monday and gave him a ride on Air Force One. Kucinich emerged convinced that the healthcare system and Obama’s presidency would be irrevocably damaged if the legislation were defeated.
And the phone calls? A good chunk of them were motivated by the man who some think is now one of the most influential voices in the party, talk show host Rush Limbaugh. The Hill reports:
Rush Limbaugh’s call to arms to kill the Democratic healthcare legislation has resulted in 500,000 phone calls to Congress.
The Chief Administrative Office (CAO) estimated that since Tuesday afternoon — when it first noted the spike in call volume — as many as 40,000 calls per hour have been routed through the House switchboard during business hours.
A spokesman for the CAO, which handles members’ technology needs, said that just as many callers were trying to reach lawmakers through the Capitol switchboard, but they have not been getting through.
The unusual call volume, which has pushed House phone lines to near-capacity levels, began Tuesday afternoon after Limbaugh made a plea on his website for fans to call lawmakers. He posted toll-free and local phone numbers for the Capitol operator, plus the message: “Call the Capitol Switchboard,” followed by “Code Red: Click Here for List of Targeted Congressmen.”
He also make his case to listeners on the air.
“I think it is pedal-to-the-metal time, and even if you have been e-mailing and faxing and calling, I think it’s time to intensify it,” he said. “You call the local offices. You call the Washington office of these people, the Democrats and so forth … The Republicans can’t stop it. Not with votes. They don’t have the votes to stop it, but you can.
“I normally don’t do this, but time to throw down the gauntlet here and really ratchet it up, to go along with all the other pressure that is being brought to bear elsewhere throughout the rest of the media.”
And if passes?
The Christian Science Monitor notes that figuring out which Democrats will be most vulnerable for voting yes is not as simple as it may appear at first glance.
And the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder — a great reporter as well as a great analyst — notes that health care reform could prove toxic for Democrats among one important group of voters. But here again: political nuance may comprise ultimate reality more than the high concept talking points drama you hear on television or radio or read in parts of the new and old media. Ambinder notes:
Right now, one thing is clear: the whole shebang — Obama-Democratic-branded health reform — is a disaster with voters who don’t lean towards either the Republican or Democratic Party. We’ve known that Republican opposition to health care is stronger than Democratic support for it. Republicans, seeking to scare the wits of out congressional Democrats, are distributing a poll from On Message Inc. that finds that of those voters who don’t express a preference on the generic ballot question — would you rather vote for a Democrat or a Republican in Congress — between 58% and 60% have a negative view of health care reform.
I don’t know whether this question was primed by others where negative information was provided about the bill, but I bet that Democrats wouldn’t dispute the core premise. The counter-point is that generic health care reform — and the specific proposals that Congress will vote on, when NOT LINKED to Democrats, Obama or the events of the past year — remain popular. Thus is the wellspring of hope for the Democrats that the bill will be disassociated with its the factors behind its conception by November.
Also, since it’s too early to construct likely voter models, it’s safe to say that a good number of true independents, who make up less than 10 percent of the electorate, won’t vote in midterm elections unless they are absolutely compelled to send a message of disapproval. They might — but remember — the Republican Party is just as unpopular as the Democratic Party.
And the future? Projecting into the future in the 21st century, the prospect that emerges doesn’t look too pretty.
American politics has come to resemble one, big partisan grudge match where the goal often seems to be almost as much about high-fiving your fellow partisans in times of triumph and/or thumbing your nose (or using another form of communication that only involves fingers on a hand) at the other side.
If we project the existing spirit of American politics, it’s not unrealistic to imagine a cycle of repeals, re-enactments, amendments and repeal of amendments on health care reform as the thirst for better policy is coupled with the equal thirst for partisan political dominance as historical political majority shifts unfold.
Rubbing their noses in it as you enact or unenact could become the rule of the day….or century.
Now you can follow Joe Gandelman on Twitter.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.