Republicans are heading towards mid-terms in which they are likely to make “significant gains” in the House of Representatives but are unlikely to gain control, according to Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball political newsletter. Isaac Wood, House Race Editor, writes:
The last two U.S. House of Representatives elections have been Democratic landslides that have left them with a 79-seat majority. In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats on election night (exactly as the Crystal Ball predicted, by the way) and didn’t lose a single seat of their own, even adding another pick-up in a December runoff. The winning streak continued in 2008, with Democrats netting 21 new seats in what was a Blue year across the board.
A month and a half into the midterm year of 2010, already Republicans can feel the tide turning. The electoral disasters of 2006 and 2008, due to the toxic unpopularity of George W. Bush and the war in Iraq, represented the dark ages for the GOP, but now they sense a Republican Renaissance in 2010.
Some pundits are already predicting the GOP could even take back the House, which would require a net gain of 40 seats this November. To put that into perspective, in the past sixty years there have been thirty House elections, but only four have resulted in either party gaining 40 seats or more. In fact, over the past thirty-five years (and sixteen House elections), only once has either party picked up 40 seats or more. That year, of course, was 1994 when Republicans came to power following a net gain of 52 House seats.
While the Crystal Ball believes 2010 will reverse Democratic gains at all levels, there is still no convincing evidence that a GOP wave will deliver Republicans the majority in the House. Examining history and House races on a district-by-district basis shows instead that Republicans are headed to a more typical, if better than average, midterm year, picking up between 24 and 30 seats as the Crystal Ball has predicted since September. The average pick-up in a midterm year (since 1946) is 22 seats and Republicans should exceed that, but the magic number of 40 still seems out of reach, as of February.
The boldface emphasis is Wood’s.
This needs to be read from start to finish in full, but here is a bit more:
The key to this year’s midterm elections is the economy. If the economy improves between now and November, Democratic losses could be slight and they would still retain a mid-size majority in the House. The adage “timing is everything” rings true in politics as well-timed economic news could trump many months of malaise in the minds of voters. Yet if the economy stays stalled or sours further, Republicans could well boost their House gains to levels not seen since 1994.
So long as Obama’s popularity ratings hover around 50% or higher, though, Republicans will be hard-pressed to produce the magnitude of gains they hope for. The Crystal Ball has moved 29 Democratic House seats in the Republicans’ direction since our last batch of ratings, but those movements merely indicate which seats the GOP have a good chance of taking. The fundamentals of 2010 have not changed much over the past months: Republicans are still headed for significant gains in November, but as of today it appears they will fall short of the 40 seats they need to become the majority party in the House.
He gives some detailed analysis and then this chart:
Read the analysis in full by going to the link above.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.