South Carolina is here and the kid gloves are off. At this stage in the Republican contest, I would like to offer a voters guide to identify the six remaining candidates.
Jeb Bush, the Middle Child – Jeb has worked all of his life to matter in the grand scheme of things. Having a father as President is interesting enough, but having a less accomplished brother serve as President as well has never happened before. Jeb’s predicament is not unusual for middle children but his stakes are infinitely higher – the Presidency or bust. Out of the field, Jeb may be the more pragmatic choice but Bush fatigue is real. Heck, Jeb probably feels it too. Any other governor with his record, without the Bush name, would probably be the front runner at this point. Shakespeare wrote “what’s in a name?” – for Jeb, it’s a two-edged sword named Bush.
Ben Carson, the Idealist – full of optimism, Dr. Carson exemplifies the best of the citizen-statesman who seeks to serve the people of the country rather than himself. The intangibles are there – leadership, integrity and a conservative agenda. Unfortunately, in a 24/7 media driven election where noise triumphs over substance, his campaign needs a good result in South Carolina to regain momentum. The distrust of politicians is at an all time high. In this election, Carson’s candidacy can wipe the slate clean of insider political corruption. In an area of hyper-political showmanship, will the American people choose an idealist who has no political experience?
Ted Cruz, the Ambitious Prince – The Cruz campaign has been embroiled in a number of questionable tactics in Iowa and in South Carolina. The win at all cost mentality may win delegates but has cost Cruz one of his most important commodities, the currency of trust. While people may accept all politicians as being untruthful as normal, Cruz has built his brand by being an outsider. What happens when the outsider is caught using insider tactics?
John Kasich, Romney 2.0 – John Kasich is a nice guy who wants to help people. In Ohio, his liberal policies of expanding healthcare is admirable but places the Republican Party in a bad position. If Kasich becomes the nominee, is there any policy difference between him and the Democrat? The Republican Party tried a moderate in 2012 in Mitt Romney and that didn’t work out so well. I honestly do not see a path for Kasich to survive past the SEC primaries in March. However, if he does survive and becomes the establishment alternative to Cruz/Trump, does the lack of a policy difference spell defeat for Republicans in November? In my mind, Kasich is like New Coke – an interesting idea but ultimately unsatisfying.
Marco Rubio, the Opportunist – Marco Rubio on paper is very hard to beat. Young, charismatic, excellent speaker and meets the right demographic regarding ethnicity in a changing country. Like Cruz’s ambition, Marco’s opportunism has set the course of the 1st term senator to the White House. Unlike Cruz, Rubio is not prepared to use questionable tactics to win which is a good sign. Rubio’s problem is his ability has not caught up to his window of opportunity. In last Saturday night’s debate, when the Univision interview was brought up, Rubio put his foot in his mouth once again by stating Cruz did not speak Spanish which backfired on him. Marco Rubio will have another chance to be the Republican nominee and win the White House… but it probably won’t happen in 2016.
Donald Trump, the Carnival Barker – I like Trump the candidate. There, I said it. However, Donald Trump in my opinion does not have the judgment to serve as President of the United States. Rubio’s lack of discernment is because of his lack of experience; Trump’s lack of judgment is because he always thinks he is right. It is helpful to have a P.T. Barnum type character to bring up questions no one wants to talk about. However, just because someone is good at smashing a cymbal or banging a bass drum, you do not give them the baton to direct an orchestra. Trump, as an excellent reader of the American psyche, understands running for President is a 24/7 – 18 month reality TV show. If he wins the Republican nomination, the fall election will truly be MUST SEE TV and entertaining to watch.
Faculty, Department of Political Science, Towson University. Graduate from Liberty University Seminary.