Unlike the flurry of confetti tossing which has been flooding my twitter feed for days now, I remain unconvinced that the Senate race in Massachusetts is a done deal at this point. Yes, I’ve seen the flurry of polls, some from new upstarts and some from better known entities which show Scott Brown with a growing lead outside the margins. But I also keep an eye on Nate Silver, who still rates it as a toss-up. Nate may be a shameless Democratic cheerleader, but he’s still one of the smartest guys in the room when it comes to reading poll data and prognosticating based on those numbers.
But no matter where the chips fall at 8 p.m eastern time tomorrow, one thing is for sure… Scott Brown is within hours of grabbing a huge chunk of votes – if not winning outright – in a race where, in happier times, he shouldn’t have had any business pulling more than 30%. The reasons for this can be boiled down to three little things… jobs, health care and spending. And the three of them are now inextricably entwined.
Will the Democrats learn any lessons from this? Possibly, but it seems a bit late for that now. Obama, Reid and Pelosi seem to be locked on course to get their agenda pushed through and that line was dug too deeply in the sand to back away from it now. Talk is already swirling around D.C. water fountains of how health care can be pushed through with only 51 votes if Brown actually kicks Coakley to the curb and busts the Democrats’ 60 vote super-majority margin. It’s a keystone of that Democratic agenda I mentioned, but the party leadership still seems oblivious to the fact that their agenda isn’t terribly popular among a public currently consumed with worries about paying their mortgage next month and keeping food on the table.
But while Scott Brown is pushing Democrats toward a cliff, is he also shoving the Republicans into a slightly larger tent? After a season of headhunting in the GOP where moderates and “RINOs” have been lined up against the wall, Brown is drawing huge support and millions of dollars per day from across the nation. But he isn’t a conservative who really passes the purity test, is he? Rick Moran wrote quite eloquently about it this weekend at Pajamas Media, where he examined Scott’s record and various position statements. Yes, Brown is a fiscal conservative who speaks the language of small government near and dear to many of our hearts. But he’s also “moderately pro-choice” on the abortion issue, (yes, there is such a thing. It’s my position also) and he opposed the Iraq war. Heck, if he was running for President I’d probably pack my bags and follow him across the nation like a Grateful Dead groupie.
Is he changing the attitude of some of the party purists? I was, as usual, moderating an online chat during Ed Morrissey’s show on Friday and I put that very question to the participants. Many of them were the very same ones who had savaged Dede Scozzafava in NY-23 last year and frequently referred to RINOs using terms not suitable for family viewing. The response was surprising. There were multiple admissions that Brown was “close enough on the points that count” and “the best we’re ever going to get out of Mass.”
Pressing further, I got a sense that reality was settling in to the Republican ranks, at least in some quarters. What if Charlie Crist wins the primary in Florida? Marco Rubio is hugely popular with the hard core conservatives, but if the voters of Florida select Crist, not only will Rubio support him, but many of these conservatives seem ready to concede that giving a seat at the table to a more moderate Republican may indeed be better than putting yet another Democrat in Washington.
Tomorrow’s election is going to be “special” in more than name. The Democrats have realized that they picked a not very special candidate to run in it. And Scott Brown may be the special kind of Republican who will steer the GOP back off the rocks of purity driven purging and on to a winning path. Good luck, Scott. Whether you pull this thing off or not, you ran one heck of a race and opened a lot of eyes.