Josh Marshall at TPM (emphasis mine):
We’ve now got a third poll out this morning of the NJ governor’s race. This one from SurveyUSA: Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10%. As with the Quinnipiac poll, the margin itself is very small. But each of the polls out today has shown movement in Christie’s direction. More details here.
Late Update: And now there’s a fourth. Democracy Corps, a Dem-affiliated but highly respected poll has final poll out showing Corzine over Christie by four points. And, not surprisingly, Corzine does better the higher the turnout you estimate.
Okay, so here’s my question: Why is it that the more liberal candidate (usually but not always the Democratic candidate) is helped by high voter turnout, and the more conservative candidate is helped by a low turnout?
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