Statistics, the things economists use to justify their professional existences, haven’t always been highly regarded by people who aren’t economists. Mark Twain, for example, once noted that “there are lies, damn lies and statistics,” with the later being the worst lies of all. To test this view, let’s look at the batch of stats that came our way in just today.
Leading indicators, a really big one for our economist friends, rose for the sixth straight month, last month by a hefty 1 percent. Good news? Well, maybe not if you look at what caused this statistic jump. It’s most prominent cause was the ongoing rise in the stock market, fueled in large measure by the ongoing rise of leading indicators — a kind of virtuous circle, “virtue” defined here as one hand washing the other without regard to other parts of the body economic.
Another element in this better than expected (of course) rise in leading indicators was declining claims for unemployment insurance. Sure, more than 500,000 people a month have continued losing jobs in this country every month for more than a year, but a few less have lost jobs for several months running — except last month, when the number actually rose, but let’s not focus on that now. Wall Street didn’t today. Where the focus should be is that more than 500,000 lost jobs a month is disastrous, horrendous, appalling, and that pointing to dips below some past months that were even more disastrous, horrendous and appalling, and seeing good times at hand by doing so, is not simply idiotic by mean-spirited and cruel.
Another promising number, stat-wise, is that the total number of officially unemployed is declining, a number based on those collecting unemployment insurance. Some 7,000 Americans a day are losing these benefits now because they have expired, which is the only reason this official unemployment stat is declining. It’s perhaps worth noting here that if unemployment insurance were abolished altogether, there would be nobody unemployed in the country, official stat speaking.
Short-term borrowing costs are also very low, yet another reason leading indicators rose last month. These costs are being held down artificially by the Fed, and the fact that they are so low means nothing at all in real world world terms except that the Fed is terrified about what might happen if rates were permitted to rise. Statistically speaking, though, the story here is good.
And oh yes, those analyst expectations that keep getting beaten. Another statistical reason for joy. A few days ago Caterpillar, Inc. reported its earning were down 53 percent from the prior year, but the news brought joy because this number beat analyst expectations. More analysts than ever are having their expectations beaten. Good news or lousy analysts? Statistically speaking, on Wall Street and inside the Beltway, it’s the former.
Personally, I think economists and others who see reality in statistical terms should be obliged to try trading these numbers for food, rent, and other necessities of real life. If the had to do so, I strongly suspect they would very soon discover the true value of what they’ve gotten away with peddling for far too many years.