Several polls show that the honeymoon is ending for President Barack Obama but, five months into his term, he remains highly popular personally.
The bride still loves the groom — but she’s now beginning to seriously question his judgment and ability to be a good provider. Even so, Republicans shouldn’t be smiling: polling suggests the party is at an all time low and one analyst wonders if the stage isn’t being set for another third party anti-deficit candidate in the style of Texas’ Ross Perot.
Here’s an overview of the polls:
*A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds the public isn’t happy with the growing deficit or the increased role of government in economic matter such as General Motors:
After a fairly smooth opening, President Barack Obama faces new concerns among the American public about the budget deficit and government intervention in the economy as he works to enact ambitious health and energy legislation, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
These kinds of numbers will translate into an impact on clout — the reduction of it. MORE:
These rising doubts threaten to overshadow the president’s personal popularity and his agenda, in what may be a new phase of the Obama presidency.
“The public is really moving from evaluating him as a charismatic and charming leader to his specific handling of the challenges facing the country,” says Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster who conducts the survey with Republican Bill McInturff. Going forward, he says, Mr. Obama and his allies “are going to have to navigate in pretty choppy waters.”
There’s good news for the administration, too, including tentative support for Mr. Obama’s health-care plan and approval of his nominee for the Supreme Court. The public seems more optimistic about the country’s economic future than it did a few weeks earlier, and Americans are still more likely to blame the last administration for the deficit.
But the poll suggests Mr. Obama faces challenges on multiple fronts, including growing concerns about government spending and the bailout of auto companies. A majority of people also disapprove of his decision to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Nearly seven in 10 survey respondents said they had concerns about federal interventions into the economy, including Mr. Obama’s decision to take an ownership stake in General Motors Corp., limits on executive compensation and the prospect of more government involvement in health care. The negative feeling toward the GM rescue was reflected elsewhere in the survey as well.
A solid majority — 58% — said that the president and Congress should focus on keeping the budget deficit down, even if takes longer for the economy to recover.
*A CBS/New York Times poll echoes much of this finding:
Republican criticism of Barack Obama’s handling of the economy and other issues does not appear to be having much effect on the president’s popularity, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds. Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating now stands at 63 percent, unchanged from last month. Just one in four Americans says they disapprove of the president.
On the issue deemed most important by Americans – the economy – the president holds a 57 percent approval rating. Thirty-five percent disapprove. Mr. Obama also enjoys majority approval on his handling of foreign policy (59 percent) and the threat of terrorism (57 percent).
The poll does reveal areas in which Americans offer more negative reviews of the president, however. Just forty-one percent approve of his handling of the struggling U.S. auto industry, while a slightly higher percentage – 46 percent – disapprove. And most Americans do not believe the president has a plan for dealing with the massive fiscal deficit.
On health care, meanwhile – the reform of which is the president’s top legislative priority – Mr. Obama’s approval rating is 44 percent. Thirty-four percent disapprove of the president’s handling of health care.
*But as Jonathan Singer points out HERE, that poll shows record lows for the GOP…in BOTH of these polls.
*Another echo of this comes from a Pew Poll:
A new Pew Research survey finds a solid majority of Americans (61%) continue to approve of President Obama’s job performance, “although they express mixed views of several of his policies.”
“An important positive sign for Obama is the public’s continued optimism that his policies will improve the economy — fully 65% express this view. A smaller majority (55%) is optimistic Obama will reduce the budget deficit over the long-term. Nonetheless, Obama’s job approval on the economy has declined from 60% in April to 52% currently.”
MSNBC’s Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro wonder if this is setting the stage for another Ross Perot:
Ross Perot has now become a political afterthought — especially after his two presidential defeats and his disastrous NAFTA debate performance against Al Gore — but the cause that he once championed seems to be making a comeback: balancing the budget.
In our new NBC/WSJ poll, nearly six in 10 respondents say the government should worry more about keeping the deficit down, even if that means the economy recovers more slowly. The latest New York Times/CBS poll has a similar result, with 60% believing the Obama administration doesn’t have a plan to deal with deficit. What’s more, self-identified independents, the same people Perot once appealed to, aren’t as supportive of Obama. In our NBC/WSJ survey, 46% of independents approve of Obama’s job, which is down from 60% in April, and that’s the primary reason why the president’s overall job rating has declined five points to 56%. The deficit, however, isn’t the only problematic issue for Obama. Almost seven in 10 have serious reservations about the government’s ownership of GM, and 52% oppose closing Gitmo. As one of us said on NBC’s Nightly News last night, Obama is now dealing with a public that’s judging him more for his actions than the promises he has made.
But, as we noted here, the GOP should not be smiling too broadly. They write:
But that’s the bad news for Obama and the Democrats. The good news, according to our poll, is that the president is still personally popular: his fav/unfav is 60%-29%, and three-quarters like him, including 27% who don’t agree with his policies. In addition, the public doesn’t blame Obama for the deficit or the economy — that honor instead goes to the previous Republican administration. Asked who is more responsible for the size of the deficit, 46% cited Bush, 21% said the Democrats in Congress, 7% said the Republicans in Congress, and just 6% said Obama. Moreover, 72% believe the current state of the economy is something the president inherited. Indeed, the Republican Party finds itself at all-time lows in our poll (25% positive rating) and in the NYT/CBS one (28%). And that brings up this question: If the public is really serious about the deficit, does it turn to a Perot-like figure instead of the GOP?
What can you conclude from these polls?
1. The honeymoon isn’t entirely over for Obama but he’s now getting the bill for the honeymoon suite.
2. Most Americans like what they see of him as a person and of his style. A chunk of those who don’t are partisans who need to personally dislike or hate anyone with whom they disagree who has a different party membership.
3. Obama is going to be moving into a period now where he will be greatly tested. Even with high poll ratings, the novelty of him sitting in the Oval Office will soon be totally over. He will increasingly have to earn high ratings due to keeping those aspects that voters like in place but also showing steely grit in pushing for his policies. His true skills as a politician — someone who needs to convince and cajole other politicos to give him what he wants, build working political alliances, and create a solid political coalition to support his efforts — will be greatly tested. And those skills (or lack of them) are what will make the difference between him having a successful, bland or failed presidency.
4. There is an opening for the GOP, if it chooses to take it. Clearly, Americans are concerned over the deficit and not enamored with bailing out GM. If the GOP could focus on substantive issues, seriously presented, it could make political hay. But at present it is too mired in the talk radio political culture (an angry, raging, accusatory tone that can be seen in talk radio, political discourse and on the Internet) to get beyond polemics and offer thoughtful alternatives in a lower decibel.
5. The polling numbers show the GOP continues to be preaching to its own choir.
6. Independent voters who may be wavering when it comes to Obama are not guaranteed votes for the GOP. A Ross Perot type candidate may be attractive to them. Another problem for the GOP: if the Democrats lost the independents, some other groups Democrats picked up, plus the fact that the Democrats outnumber GOPers in party registration, would still leave the Republicans with a problem.
So the bride may be wavering, but it’s not yet a given that if she leaves the groom she’ll go to her other suitor — because the other suitor may not be attractive to her and at present may not be a viable alternative (he may be just too loud, angry and judgmental all the time).
The cartoon by Nate Beeler, The Washington Examiner, is copyrighted and licensed to appear on TMV. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.