As President Barack Obama inches towards his “first hundred days” mark, two new polls from the AP and Pew Research Center suggest he’s is scoring points and reassuring the coalition that elected him, not making significant inroads among Republicans and social conservatives who opposed him — and has reversed a years long feeling among Americans that country is headed in the wrong direction.
And the polls suggest that despite the GOP charge that Obama is weak, most Americans are giving him higher marks on foreign policy than on domestic policy. And the fact that these numbers coincide with other polls showing Obama’s winning political coalition is holding firm suggest that most Americans are giving him something else: more time to fix the economy.
For the first time in years, more Americans than not say the country is headed in the right direction, a sign that Barack Obama has used the first 100 days of his presidency to lift the public’s mood and inspire hopes for a brighter future.
Intensely worried about their personal finances and medical expenses, Americans nonetheless appear realistic about the time Obama might need to turn things around, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. It shows most Americans consider their new president to be a strong, ethical and empathetic leader who is working to change Washington.
This is the antithesis of the argument made by the GOP, conservative talk show radio and cable hosts, and cyberspace pundits who are GOPers. But the AP also sees warning signs:
While there is evidence that people feel more optimistic about the economy, 65 percent said it’s difficult for them and their families to get ahead. More than one-third know of a family member who recently lost a job.
Which means patience is finite..MORE:_More than 90 percent of Americans consider the economy an important issue, the highest ever in AP polling.
_Nearly 80 percent believe that the rising federal debt will hurt future generations, and Obama is getting mixed reviews at best for his handling of the issue.
And yet, the percentage of Americans saying the country is headed in the right direction rose to 48 percent, up from 40 percent in February. Forty-four percent say the nation is on the wrong track.
Not since January 2004, shortly after the capture of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, has an AP survey found more “right direction” than “wrong direction” respondents.
Go to the link to read the piece in its entirety.
Meanwhile, Pew finds Obama has a higher approval rating numbers than his predecessors — and his personal popularity even higher:
As he approaches the 100-day mark of his presidency, Barack Obama’s job approval ratings are higher than those of his most recent predecessors. However, the 44th president is even more distinguished by his strong personal popularity. Fully 73% of Americans – including as many as 46% of Republicans – hold a favorable view of Obama as a person. Fewer people held favorable impressions of George W. Bush (61%) and Bill Clinton (60%) early in their first years.
Obama’s job approval stands at 63%, while 26% disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president. His approval rating is up slightly from March (59%). Opinions about Obama’s performance remain highly partisan. Fully 93% of Democrats approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, compared with just 30% of Republicans. Independents’ opinions fall in between, with 58% expressing positive views of his performance and 27% negative opinions.
We’ve boldfaced that: independent voters are like any group: they’re not monolithic. And Obama is winning the bulk of them.
Pew Research previously found a greater partisan gap in Obama’s early job approval ratings than in the ratings of past presidents. ..That continues to be the case. Obama’s approval rating among Republicans (30%) is about the same as Bill Clinton’s at a comparable point in his first year (25%), but Democratic approval – particularly strong approval – is much higher than it was for Clinton. Fully 79% of Democrats very strongly approve of Obama’s job performance; only about half as many Democrats (39%) expressed very strong approval for Clinton at this stage in 1993. Obama’s highly positive ratings from members of his own party also surpass Bush’s 71% very strong approval among Republicans in April 2001.
What does this mean?
Unlike Bush who in the end became basically a President of his base (with little Democratic and independent support) if Obama holds his coalition it is a viable — and winning — coalition. If the Democrats can keep it intact, given the declining numbers of Republicans it could qualify as a realignment.
The GOP’s problem so far is that most of its message has been negative and not generally centered on offering specific, substantive and thoughtful alternative policies. Moreover, Republicans continues to have a severe image problem. Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Dick Cheney may be heroes to many in the party’s conservative base, but the arguments they put forth – plus the tone and manner in which they present them — are unlikely to significantly peel away pieces of Obama’s winning coalition.
What could change that? Obama’s economic policies fizzling…a major foreign policy gaffe..a major stumble.
And when you look at these polls, it also becomes clear how sentiment in the Democratic party as whole could have continued influence over Obama, no matter how independent his team says he is.
But it’s clear the GOP is going to have to come up with a better strategy than digging in its heels in Congress or trying to make labels such as “socialist” or “weak” stick.
Just look at these other numbers:
1. Gallup Poll has shown Obama’s job approval as fairly steady — but it has now gone up slightly (right when the GOP was charging him with being weak and Cheney was doing the widely publicized interview with the former Vice President’s favorite “newsman,” Sean Hannity).
2. Pollster.com’s chart of polls and graph shows Obama’s support holding fairly steady, as his GOP opposition grows.
3. RealClearPolitics chart also shows Obama with steady support and an uptick in GOP dissatisfaction.
It’s clear the GOP needs: (1) A more substantive, positive argument in terms of policy. (2) Fresher faces delivering its more affirmative, alternative policies (this doesn’t necessarily mean younger faces but not the same baby boomer-linked people talking in talk radio political culture language). (3)To expand its tent: it can’t win elections limited to the same kind of support and can’t pick up more support delivering the same message using the same kind of rhetoric via same seen-for-years partisan faces.
The AP poll is consistent with what we’ve seen in our own survey: Before he took office, the NBC/WSJ poll showed that just 26% thought the country was on the right track, but that number jumped 15 points (to 41%) in the poll that was released last month. Also in the new AP poll, 64% approve of Obama’s job; twice as many say he’s living up to his promises than not; and seven in 10 say it’s reasonable to expect that it will take longer than a year to see the effect of his economic policies. It’s no wonder House Minority Whip Eric Cantor continues to try to duck directly attacking the president and instead is turning his fire on congressional Democrats, namely, Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
UPDATE: The Politico notes that conservatives are not having much of an impact on slowing down or halting Obama.
UPDATE II: Note what we’ve said here repeatedly about how the high-profile talk radio political culture Republicans are hurting the party. Now there is THIS PIECE in The Hill that says the Democrats are working to brand the party as the party of Gingrich and Cheney. Here’s just part of it:
National Democrats are embarking on a new campaign to brand Republicans as a party led by widely unpopular faces like former Vice President Cheney.
…Strategists privately stress the GOP needs to move past old faces, and one veteran Republican said the attacks could be effective.
“The conservatism of the 21st century should be divorced from personality politics and simply be about ideas,” said Craig Shirley, a biographer of former President Reagan. “But since the GOP appears to be bankrupt of ideas, this line of attack will be effective from the standpoint of putting them on the defensive again.”
This hits two nails on the head. Conservatism needs to articulate ideas, not just rage. And by not articulating and promoting specific ideas that are stripped of hot-button buzzwords that only appeal to partisans and turn off others, it’s leaving the field open for Obama and Democrats who discuss policy specifics.
All three Republicans have image problems. A January Pew Research Center poll showed just 31 percent viewed Cheney favorably. Rove’s appearances serve to remind the American public of the similarly-unpopular Bush administration. And Gingrich, who is said to be considering a presidential bid in 2012, never enjoyed widespread popularity during his tenure as Speaker.
Cheney, Gingrich and Rove have all sucked up time on cable news networks and sparked new controversies. Media outlets fixating on remarks the three Republicans make, Democrats say, are robbing the congressional GOP of oxygen they need to get out their own message and fight back against Democratic initiatives.
“I think most voters, especially those under 50, see Cheney, Gingrich and Rove as the symbols of a Republican Party built on intolerance, deceit and division,” said Democratic strategist Peter Giangreco. “Where voters are tired of the old politics of conflict, these men still want to divide America into red states and blue states, into good Americans and bad Americans.”
Some will disagree with the first part of Giangreco’s comment. But many will agree with the second part.
“If the GOP continues to follow their lead, they risk permanently alienating vast parts of the electorate that will only become more important as time moves forward,” Giangreco added.
Republicans say the effort only serves as proof that Obama and national Democrats are going back on their promises of a post-partisan Washington.
That argument won’t work except with GOP partisans. The Demmies are able to latch onto this attempt to solidify identification of the GOP with some of its most rhetorically divisive members precisely because since Obama came to office rhetoric from these figures has been more attuned to discussion on talk radio or what you sometimes find in blog post comments (except here at TMV).
The Democats would not have this chance to run this campaign if Republicans had been offering fresh faces, specific ideas and had given talk-radio-style demonization a rest, at least a while. GOP rhetorical barrage has been so extensive that the Democrats now could be accused of political negligence by not responding to it — or giving it more publicity since it turns so off so many other voters who might not even be enamored of Obama.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.