As President Barack Obama prepares to deliver a major speech on the budget and vows to pursue bipartisanship to reduce an ever-exploding deficit, two polls bring him and Democrats encouraging news — and suggest more than ever that the Republican party could be digging itself into a deeper political hole as it continues to try and shore up its conservative base and eschews a generally understood perception of bipartisanship.
If you boil down these two polls the findings are:
1. Most Americans are confident about Obama’s leadership and give him high marks. This suggests more than ever that the GOP is once again putting its focus on how to please its conservative base, and is risking losing Republicans who veer more towards the country’s existing political center than party base conservatives. Obama’s poll numbers indicating and support from people of both parties or no party translate into clout — IF Obama chooses to use it or uses it in a way that doesn’t undermine his support.
2. People know problems won’t be solved overnight, but want to see some positive movement and are inclined to give Obama time. If in 2010 the economy is “fixed” will voters want to opt to give power to the party that controlled the federal government and much of the Congress for 8 years? If this number holds up — and numbers showing voters favor the Democrats by a huge margin over GOPers in Congress — it may not bode well for the GOP’s Newt Gingrich inspired opposition strategy.
3. Obama is losing Republican support. However, previous polls indicated that the support he’s losing is from Republican conservatives.) If he consolidates his emerging coalition (Democrats, a healthy chunk of independents and non talk show political culture Republicans) it could redefine the American political center.
4. His honeymoon is drawing to a close. And if conservative GOPers aren’t happy, there are no signs that Democrats need a marriage counselor.
Here’s a look at the polls, a bit more on what it means and some reaction to this latest data:
The New York Times:
President Obama is benefiting from remarkably high levels of optimism and confidence among Americans about his leadership, providing him with substantial political clout as he confronts the nation’s economic challenges and opposition from nearly all Republicans in Congress, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
A majority of people surveyed in both parties said Mr. Obama was striving to work in a bipartisan way, but most faulted Republicans for their response to the president, saying the party had objected to the $787 billion economic stimulus plan for political reasons. Most said Mr. Obama should pursue the priorities he campaigned on, the poll found, rather than seek middle ground with Republicans.
The Times finds that although people are skeptical about how effective his policies will be, they are willing to give him time — and he enjoys a level of support akin to that enjoyed by Ronald Reagan when the former California Governor inherited a messy economy mess from Jimmy Carter:
A month into Mr. Obama’s term, with his first big accomplishments, setbacks and political battles behind him, more than three-quarters of the people polled said they were optimistic about the next four years with him as president. Similar percentages said that they thought he was bringing real change to the way things were done in Washington and that they had confidence in his ability to make the right decisions about the economy.
The aura of good will surrounding Mr. Obama at this stage of his presidency is similar to the one that benefited Ronald Reagan as he led the nation out of economic gloom.
With a job approval rating of 63 percent, Mr. Obama is in a strong position to sell his economic policies. Yet the poll also captured skepticism about how effective his plans will prove to be in addressing the deep recession, as well as a strain of populism that could test his ability to retain public support for efforts to prop up key sectors of the economy.
The Times also finds the public notably souring on bankers and hand-in-hat automakers:
At a moment when some economists are talking openly about the possibility of nationalizing banks, a majority of poll respondents said that so far, the administration’s bailout plans for financial institutions would benefit bankers, not all Americans. An even wider majority said the struggling automotive companies, which are seeking billions of dollars in additional loans from the government and which are shedding tens of thousands of workers, should not receive any more taxpayer money to help them survive. And while there is a strong belief that government should help homeowners avoid foreclosure, people are evenly divided over whether the plan announced last week is fair.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post poll chronicles the decline of bipartisanship raising the questions as to whether if failed, can or can’t succeed or whether the definition of it is outmoded in an era when some still consider compromise and working with “the other side” as near political treason.
As President Obama prepares to address a joint session of Congress tonight, he is receiving strong reviews for his first full month in office, but deep partisan fault lines are quickly reemerging.
Large majorities of Americans in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll support his $787 billion economic stimulus package and the recently unveiled $75 billion plan to stem mortgage foreclosures. Nearly seven in 10 poll respondents said Obama is delivering on his pledge to bring needed change to Washington, and about eight in 10 said he is meeting or exceeding their expectations. At the same time, however, the bipartisan support he enjoyed as he prepared to take office has eroded substantially amid stiff Republican opposition to his major economic initiatives.
Thirty-seven percent of Republicans now approve of how he has done his job, a sharp drop from a month ago, when 62 percent gave him good marks for his handling of the transition. Also, nearly seven in 10 Americans oppose giving $14 billion in new loans to automakers General Motors and Chrysler, something Obama is considering in an effort to prop up the ailing industry and preserve jobs.
One interesting tidbit:
About nine in 10 Democrats and seven in 10 independents said Obama is living up to the central promise of his campaign: bringing change to Washington. Most Republicans said he is not.
The Post poll indicates most Americans give much better marks to Obama than to Republicans in Congress — and that compared to Democrats, Republicans are still out in the political wilderness:
Sixty-one percent said they trust Obama more than the GOP on economic matters; 26 percent side with the Republicans in Congress. On that question, Obama’s advantage is bigger than George W. Bush, Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush ever had over the opposition party in the legislature.
Overall, Democrats maintain an edge of nearly 2 to 1 over Republicans as the party that Americans prefer to confront “the big issues” over the next few years.
Although most poll respondents approve of the job Obama is doing, two-thirds still see the nation as being seriously on the wrong track. But that outlook is less dire than it was a month ago, as Democrats have become more hopeful about the country’s direction now that they have recaptured the White House.
Two out of three poll respondents said they want Democrats and Republicans to cooperate across party lines, even if that means compromising on important issues. And most, nearly three in four, said Obama is trying to reach across the partisan divide; nearly six in 10 respondents said Republicans are not returning the gesture.
That divide was apparent in the partisan battle over Obama’s stimulus plan, which ended up winning three Republican votes in the Senate and none in the House. Although most of those polled support the stimulus package, the intensity of the opposition has crept upward since the plan’s passage last week. About a quarter now “strongly oppose” it, with GOP antipathy solidifying over the past month.
So support for bipartisanship is up? Yes…and no. Greg Sergeant writes:
You routinely hear it asserted that the public wants bipartisan comity in Washington, but some striking numbers buried in the internals of the new New York Times poll find that in the current context, precisely the opposite is true:
“Which do you think should be a higher priority for Barack Obama right now — working in a bipartisan way with Republicans in Congress or sticking to the policies he promised he would during the campaign:
Working bipartisan way: 39%
Sticking to policies: 56%”
So a sizable majority wants Obama to pursue his policies with our without Republican support. Meanwhile, a huge majority says that Republicans should emphasize working with Obama in a bipartisan way over pursuing their policy ideas:
“Which do you think should be a higher priority for Republicans in Congress right now — working in a bipartisan way with Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress or sticking to Republican policies?
Working bipartisan way: 79%
Sticking to policies: 17%”
While some GOPers insist that their party is not becoming the party of “no,” that is the danger. And potential Republican schisms over how to take the party into the 21st century — do you retool or basically use the Limbaugh/Gingrich model with new faces as front people — were evident by these comments by a Republican governor:
The Republican governor of Utah on Monday said his party is blighted by leaders in Congress whose lack of new ideas renders them so “inconsequential” that he doesn’t even bother to talk to them.
“I don’t even know the congressional leadership,” Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. told editors and reporters at The Washington Times, shrugging off questions about top congressional Republicans, including House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “I have not met them. I don’t listen or read whatever it is they say because it is inconsequential – completely.”
The danger for the GOP is that the bulk of America’s voters who are in what could be in a coalition that will redefine the country’s center (moving it more to the left) will agree.
What does all of this mean? People on all sides will cherry pick, but Obama is going into his speech with clout. The GOP has apparently not made much political progress, except in its seemingly perpetual campaign to appeal to and shore up its conservative talk radio political culture base.
Unless things change, Obama is redefining the country’s center from the Bush years (Democrats, independents and some non-talk-show-political-culture Republicans who supported Bush 41 more than Bush 43).
And bipartisanship?
Taken together the polls suggest that people want bipartisanship but perhaps not at the expense of not getting many of the changes they voted for when they cast votes (a) for Obama (b) against the Bush era (c) for a Democratic administration (d) against the brand of Republicanism that has come to dominate the GOP during the Bush years.
So when Obama continues to extend an olive branch and Republicans break it over his head, even if GOPers feel they have a good reason for doing so, they are losing the p.r. campaign on this one — and if a party ever needed a p.r. boost versus bad image confirmation, it’s the GOP. What should the GOP do? Perhaps, in the long term, it might start taking the advice of Colin Powell…
BUT THESE POLLS ARE SEEN IN DIFFERENT WAYS BY DIFFERENT PEOPLE OF DIFFERING VIEWS. HERE ARE SOME REACTIONS:
By a 17 point-margin, Americans think it’s more important that Obama “stick to his policies” than try to dilute them in order to attract Republican support in pursuit of “bipartisanship.” It’s not surprising that 39% want Obama to pursue bipartisanship. There are still many people who prefer Republican policies and naturally want Obama to embrace those policies in the name of “bipartisanship” — but the group that wants that is in the clear minority. That’s why Republicans lost so decisively in the last two elections.
…Put another way, the reason that Americans voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats in the last two elections and overwhelmingly against Republicans is because they want Democratic policies and not Republicans policies. They drove Republicans out of office in massive numbers because they don’t want Republicans and their policies governing the country. They want something different than Republican policies, meaningfully distinguishable from those policies — “change.” Everywhere but the Beltway, that proposition would be self-evident. [If the question about “bipartisanship” is asked generically without regard to political party — as the new Washington Post poll phrased it — only then will Americans will say they want bipartisanship over “political leaders sticking with their positions,” because — as all of this new polling data proves — they want Republicans to compromise and support Obama’s policies.]
The political establishment has never come to terms with, and the media establishment just refuses to acknowledge, how deeply unpopular and discredited the GOP is among most Americans in the wake of the eight-year Bush disaster.
–-Jules Crittenden (post needs to be read in full):
But whatever he’s doing, it’s apparently working for now. NYT: A majority of Americans support him, think he’s reaching across, think Republicans are partisan spoilers. That’s how NYT reads it, anyway..I dunno if NYT is reading that right. I think bipartisanship is preferable, too. I also think Obama and the Dem Cong leadership have made it impossible, and showed no signs of seriously pursuing it. No wonder NYT is confused. A majority of Americans apparently want it both ways.
People are worried, and Obama is offering a way out. It’s not at all surprising that they’re giving him the benefit of the doubt right now, and it’s not surprising that they’re paying little attention to Congressional Republicans who have done little except say no at every turn.
The real test, of course, will come in the months and years to come. If the economy improves, then Obama gets the credit and we’re unlikely to see any significant Republican gains in 2010; if that improvement continues through 2012, then we could be looking at a repeat of 1996. If the economy doesn’t improve, then Obama gets the blame and pays the price.
There really isn’t anything the Republicans can do right now but wait and see what happens.
Obama won the presidency with about 53 percent, and has grown more popular since then. It makes sense, in other words, that a large hunk of the 65 or 70 percent of the country that approve of Obama’s performance would want him to charge forward, while a smaller percent would, like his genuine detractors, prefer to see him be more modest.
The latter finding is pretty stunning, though. John McCain won about 46 percent of the vote. Some of those voters, obviously, now think Obama’s doing a pretty decent job, and they say they support him. The rest should be total dead-enders, right? But if 30 or 35 percent of the country “disapprove” of Obama, only about half of them think the Republicans should keep drag racing toward the cliff. The other half (Susan Collins fans?) join the vast, sane supermajority of the country who think that, whatever Obama does, Republicans should stop behaving like petulant children.
But, of course, they’ve decided to go the “suicide pact” route instead.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.