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Posted by on Nov 7, 2016 in 2016 Elections, 2016 Presidential Election, Politics | 4 comments

Final Election Day Predictions


First, nothing in the last day of Early Voting has tempered my belief (see earlier post) that Hillary Clinton will win easily in the popular vote and in the Electoral College. The Comey “Never Mind” letter may have marginal impact in encouraging Dems to vote, but I doubt it will matter much.

However, I am adjusting one thing based on what looks like the continued fall-off of support for Gary Johnson and other third party candidates among Early Voters. To be conservative here, I will give one point from Johnson and others to Trump.

That makes the final popular vote total:

50.1 (Clinton) to 44.1 (Trump) to 3.5 (Johnson) to 1.3 (Stein) to 1 (Others).

As of now, 538’s national poll average is 3.3; Pollster/HuffPo is 5.2; RCP is 2.9 – averaging to 3.8. I added 3 points for Hillary’s ground game yesterday but I’ll add 2.2 this time, which is probably more realistic given Obama beat his final polls by 2, and Romney’s turnout operation was not as good as I originally thought (lots of technological goofs). FWIW, my prediction is exactly what the final margin is from Monmouth University Poll (an A+ pollster at 538), so there ARE some quality pollsters calling for a sizable Clinton win.

What about Electoral College? Let’s start with 323, the minimum I think HRC will get. That’s the Blue Wall plus FL, NC, NH and NV. I will go out on a limb here and say that she takes Arizona and Ohio. Arizona because of Latino turnout and Ohio because the GOP-Trump turnout operation is a mess. She loses Iowa and barely loses Georgia. Texas will be closer than ever before but she will not win it.
Final margin: 352 – 186.

As for the Senate: Dems hold Nevada and pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and, the big shock, Missouri. I think Burr holds on for the GOP in North Carolina. GOP holds on in FL, OH, AZ and GA as well. That’s a 6-seat gain for the Democrats, giving them a 52-48 advantage.

I have no idea re: the House, so I won’t make any predictions there.

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Copyright 2016 The Moderate Voice
  • Brownies girl

    Hope you’re right Aaron. Good luck America, hope Hillary wins. Meantime, a bunch of Canucks (81% (really!) of whom say they actually fear that maybe the Orange one will scrape through tomorrow night) will be playing this song, all day! God bless Leonard, he says it for all of us.

    • SteveK

      Thanks Brownies girl for your excellent choice of songs,

      Much of what Leonard wrote seems more and more appropriate as life goes on.

      Here’s another that works well this week too…

      Ring the bells that still can ring
      Forget your perfect offering
      There is a crack in everything
      That’s how the light gets in.

      • Brownies girl

        He’s gone, Steve!!!!! Leonard died today! Age 82. I just heard, am devastated. His music carried me through my 20’s and up until now. All I can think of is his lyrics from the Tower of Song.

        Now I bid you farewell, I don’t know when I’ll be back
        They’re moving us tomorrow to that tower down the track
        But you’ll be hearing from me baby, long after I’m gone
        I’ll be speaking to you sweetly
        From a window in the Tower of Song

        Blessings — and RIP Leonard Cohen. I will miss you so much! BG

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