Following the last round of redistricting, the Republican Party thought they had built the infrastructure to withstand a category five storm, Hurricane Trump is putting that to a severe test. With a civil war no longer threatening but actually overtaking the Republican Party, pundits and strategists from both parties believe there is a chance that the once unthinkable could materialize on November 8: a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives.

To be sure, a district-by-district look at the playing field still suggests tremendous difficulty for Democrats eliminating the GOP’s 30 seat advantage. The remap was designed to insulate the GOP against an environment like this and by making a number of formerly competitive areas more Republicans, it has largely succeeded. But there is a limit even in territory Republicans can almost always consider their own. It’s not just that some Republicans will cast a ballot for Clinton, it’s that others will stay home or, most ominously, that die-hard Trump supporters turned off by fellow-Republicans diss of their standard bearer will leave the rest of the ticket blank. That said, Democratic optimism is brewing.

Shock winners emerge nearly every out of the ordinary cycle. In 2006, Carol Shea-Porter and Jerry McNerney came out of no-where. In 1990, it was Scot Klug and a guy named Rick Santorum. Even going back to 1974 when 25-year-old Tom Downey dislodged a well-known Long Island incumbent. But long-shots winning is the very definition of a wave and there is a chance that can occur this year.

Suppose Democrats were to gain the seats necessary to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker again. It would likely come from seats given rare or no likelihood of changing partisan hands earlier in the year, or even this month. Some are simply terrific candidates facing entrenched opponents or districts with the opposite partisan domination. Others are put in play simply because of faux-pas by opponents that make Trump look seasoned. But all are political nobodies. Come next January 3, there’s a feint chance that some may be members of Congress.

Let’s profile a few.

Jay Sidie (Kansas-3)
Should he prevail against three-term incumbent Kevin Yoder in November, Sidie would be the first to acknowledge that Trump and Governor Sam Brownback bear much responsibility. Despite taking heat for swimming in the Sea of Galilee nude in his first term, Yoder quickly regained his footing – as well as his clothing. Were it not for Trump’s candidacy, he’d likely be cruising again (a mid-summer poll gave him a 17% lead). But this district is not conservative rural Kansas. It is Kansas City and the highly educated exurbs (Overland Park, Lenexa, etc.,) and right now, Clinton leads Trump by 10 (Romney conversely took 54% in ’12). Brownback’s support meanwhile is so low that it might not be inaccurate to say it has dwindled to his nuclear family.

Sidie, whose web-site describes him labels him “as far from a career politician as you can get,” is a financial analyst who is attacking the incumbent for his connection to a businessman implicated in a payday loan scheme. Republicans have responded that Sidie is not registered to dispense advice in Kansas, a violation of the Kansas Uniform Securities Act. Sidie disputes this. After the release of a poll showing Sidie right on Yoder’s heels, the DCCC has announced that they will soon be spending roughly $1 million to boost him. And that could result in what as recently as this summer was seen as an unlikely turnover.

Jay Sidie
Photo via Kansascity.com

Joe Pakootas (Washington-5)

In her twelve years in “the other Washington,” Cathy McMorris-Rodgers has lived a charm life. Elected as a rising star, she has earned mention as a possible vice-presidential candidate and received much publicity when she gave birth to a child with developmental disabilities. In 2013, her GOP colleagues entrusted her with the position of Republican Conference Leader. In the past, she has been aided by her safely Republican district but there are signs that is ebbing. In Washington’s blanket primary, McMorris-Rodgers took just 42%. While Democrat Joe Pakootas’s 32% wasn’t particularly imposing given that Republican took 8% from McMorris-Rodgers, another 11% went to an Independent whose theme was fixing Congress. And McMorris-Rodgers’ showing was by far the lowest of any of the Evergreen State’s 10 incumbents.

Trump has put McMorris-Rodgers in a bind. Upon endorsing him in May, she vowed she “won’t be shy” about telling Trump when he’s wrong but for Pakootas, it’s not enough. In the aftermath of the tape, he said “anyone who endorses a man like that does not deserve another term in the United States House of Representatives.” But even before audiogate, Pakootas was mounting a strong bid. A Native-American, he has had a number of high-ranking roles, including CEO of tribes. The district only gave McCain 52% and McMorris-Rodgers was held to 56% in 2006. So there’s definitely an opening. Whether it’ll be enough remains to be seen. Interestingly, were McMorris-Rodgers to lose, she wouldn’t be the first high-ranking Representative Representative from this Spokane-anchored district to do so. House Speaker Tom Foley was toppled by George Nethercutt in 1994.

Paul Clements (Michigan-6)
Paul Clements might also have found himself an also-ran in normal circumstances as well though no one would’ve been able to say he didn’t show up for the fight. In 2014, the Western University political science professor attracted unusual attention for a challenger, much less an opponent of the House Commerce chair, Fred Upton. He was dismayed by the once quintessential moderate Upton moving further to the right and attracted funding from Harvard’s Lawrence Lessig’s Mayday PAC. In the end, Upton, who for his entire 30 years has been accustomed to easy rides, swept into gear and held his seat with 56%. But that was in a strong GOP year. Plus, Upton’s base showed signs of unraveling in 2012 when he was held to a 32 vote victory in Kalamazoo County. This year, Clements has found a new way to showcase his creativity. An ad showcases his being a professor with his penchant for fact-finding missions with the quip, “Indiana Jones made being a professor cool. I’m not sure that I can pull that off.”

Clements needed a circumstance out if his control to get past Upton and the Trump matter may have provided him that opening. Shortly after the tape’s release, Upton said he would not back Trump. Conservatives have long been leery about Upton and it showed in recent primaries. If enough Trump backers, combined with Democrats seeking change come out, the once mighty giant could be toppled.

Suzanna Shkreli (Michigan-8)
Mike Bishop represents another Michigan district but, after just two years in Congress, lacks the seniority of Upton. But he’s represented these parts for close to 20 years, having served in the Legislature since 1999, including two as Senate Majority Leader.

Opponent Suzanna Shkreli wasn’t her party’s first choice to challenge Bishop. That honor belonged to former Little House On The Prairie star Melissa Gilbert. But Gilbert bowed out prior to the primary and Shkreli replaced her on the ballot. The assistant Macomb County Prosecutor is 28 and telegenic and aired an ad stressing her fight for children. She also used her background to hit Trump, tweeting that, “As a prosecutor, I fight every day to keep dangerous predators off the streets. What Donald Trump is describing is sexual assault.”

Bishop hasn’t made any tremendous missteps but did raise eyebrows saying her name was hard to pronounce. Before the latest Trump crisis, his own poll showed him ahead by double digits. There is some talk as to whether an Albanian-American could carry parts of the district. But Obama did carry the district by 6% in 2008 and though he lost it by 3% in ’12, the state capitol of Lansing (home to the University of Michigan) and the Detroit exurbs seem ready for Hillary. Whether they’ll be ready for Shkreli remains to be seen. Races in Michigan could often typically turn close on a dime. In 2008, 3-term Republican Thad McCotter, whose former district covered parts of this, was thought to be comfortably ahead in his bid for a 4th term. But when the Obama landslide subsided, McCotter emerged with just a 51-45%. Will the same happen this year?

Paul Clements (top) and suzanna Shkreli (bottom) have the potential to stun a very senior and a very junior House incumbent respectively
Top photo via clementsforcongresscom; Bottom photo via suzannaforcongress.com

Christina Hartman (Pennsylvania-16)
The famous saying is, “With a name like Smucker, it has to be good.” That’s a theory State Senator Lloyd Smucker hopes is correct this year as he strives to hold the seat of retiring GOP Congressman Joe Pitts. History suggests it should be no contest. Only a few counties in Eastern Tennessee have gone longer without being served by a Democrat than this district. But Christina Hartmann hopes to change that. And if that is to happen, this would be the year, a fact Hartman is aware of (“If it doesn’t get done this year, it doesn’t get done”).

The district has already demonstrated its ability to choose a Democrat for President, albeit narrowly (Obama eked out a 50-49% win in ’08). For GOP mapmakers may have outsmarted themselves in the 2012 redistricting by peeling off Republican enclaves in order to shore up the marginal Pennsylvania-6 next door. The result is that Hartman, a non-profit, human rights worker, is creeping up on Smucker. There have been no recent polls but both sides agree that Smucker is nominally ahead. But the district contains Franklin & Marshall and Hartmann hopes students will turn out for Clinton. The Clinton campaign is also targeting Chester County. But more important may be Lancaster. If enough voters in the hugely populated, largely Republican county fails to come out for Trump in disgust, this seat could go blue.

Lynn Coleman (Indiana-2)
This district is the prototype of Republican efforts to shore up swing territory. And when Jackie Walorski, a member of the Indiana House known as “Wacky Jackie” turned back a strong challenge from Iraq War vet Brendan Mullen in 2012, it was viewed to have succeeded. Redistricting clearly made the difference as the Democratic working-class city of Kokomo was removed and replaced with Republican Miami and Wabash Counties. This reduced Obama’s 54% ’08 win to just 50-49% in ’12.Moreover,it gave Romney 56% in ’12, a 7% partisan flip. But the district still contains St. Joseph County (South Bend), which allows it to maintain it’s working-class status.

In office, Walorski has worked to shed the “Wacky Jacky” image but has still been plagued with charges of limited accessibility. Still, her opponent, Lynn Coleman, was initially regarded as little more than an also-ran. His story is true middle-America. A long-time police officer and former South Bend Mayoral aide.But he has proven an affable and formidable foe who has attracted the attention of D.C. Democrats and liberal bloggers. He has hit the incumbent with maneuvering to have a sole debate aired in only Republican friendly areas rather than the entire district. Recently, she aired a negative ad on Coleman, something normally confident incumbents rarely do.

To be sure, it would take a colossal Republican collapse to dislodge Walorski but, changing Coleman’s title from Officer to Congressman does not seem the tall order it did just a month ago.

Incumbent Jackie Walorski is trying to prevent becoming a surprise second fiddle to Lynn Coleman (above)

Finally, two other Democratic candidates would appear to be the longest of long-shots but bare watching due to incumbents making uncharted no-nos.

Raul Berrerra (Texas-27)
The Republican primary here is usually the main affair and, given that it was won by a three-term incumbent, what reason would anyone have for thinking Blake Farenthold could be dislodged in November. But in the primary, Farenthold took a very tepid margin in Nueces County (Corpus Christie), the largest in the district and lost upscale areas such as Padre Island and Port Aransas Why? Southern Methodist University Political Science professor Cal Jillison once called Farenthold “capable of getting himself into difficulties.” The most nationally visible was when NBC’s Chris Hayes asked Farenthold if a tape surfaced of Trump saying, “I love to rape women,” would he rescind his backing. Farenthold’s reply: “I’d consider it.”

This has been far from Farenthold’s first rodeo with controversy. Last year, he settled a sexual harassment/discrimination lawsuit with his former Communications Director, Lauren Greene. In November, he faces Raul Berrera, a Special Deputy/Court Security Officer in Corpus Christie. In endorsing him before the primary, The Corpus Christie Daily Caller conceded that, in a Romney 61%, “Barerra (would) be sorely outmatched in the Nov. 8 general election.” But Trump may fuel Latino turnout and voters in his own party have not been shy about sending warning shots to Farenthold before. If the “I’d consider it” comment sticks with a few moderate voters, Farenthold could be in for a rough night.

Christian Cano (North Carolina-9)
Cano is in a similar situation. Robert Pittenger has struggled with his own party throughout most of his two terms, a struggle that hit full crescendo when he won his primary by 133 votes, though a mid-decade redistricting did force him to introduce himself to many new voters. But Pittenger had other problems, specifically the investigation by the FBI and IRS of real estate companies he owns. That led his very popular predecessor, Sue Myrick, to endorse Pittenger’s primary opponent. During the Charlotte riots, Pittenger won international attention when he blamed the unrest on the fact that protesters “hate white people because white people are successful and they’re not.” Cano is an energetic Democratic activist and longtime hotel consultant who may hope to blunt his progressivism by campaigning in a cowboy hat. As if to take aim at Pittenger’s penchant for tempestuous statements, judgement is one of his slogans.

NC-9 is one of the most educated districts in the nation and Pittenger has underperformed before. In 2012, he beat Jennifer Roberts just 52-46%, a race far closer than expected. Similarly, Cano is very much underfunded and the district gave Romney 54%. But in 2006, Larry Kissell in a nearby, more rural district, lost by 328 votes (he finished the job two years later) after finding himself in similar circumstances. And unlike this year, that was a mid-term election, which meant turnout was very low. With North Carolina a battleground, that’ll be far from the case this year.

North Carolina Congressional candidate Christian Cano is on the list of almost no one but the self-inflicted wounds of his opponent could produce a surprise the morning after

Republished from yesterday