A new poll finds that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would beat billionaire Donald Trump in a general election, Vice President Joe Biden is the most popular Democrat (if he enters the race) — and that Trumps negatives are worse than Clinton’s:
Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in a general election match-up if the election were held today, a new poll shows.
Clinton beats Trump, 49% to 39%, head-to-head. She would be neck-and-neck with other GOP contenders — including former tech CEO Carly Fiorina (45% to Clinton’s 44%), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (46% to Clinton’s 45%), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (44% to Clinton’s 45%).
But if Vice President Joe Biden runs for president, he’d enter the race as the most popular presidential candidate, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey.
But I’m sure Veep Biden is also weighing the fact that candidates look good and can zoom in the polls, but once they take their toe out of the water and dive in, they may find the water colder than it appeared from the outside or felt on their toe. The re-vetting will begin — old stories, old problems, gaffes replayed, etc. Biden’s decision will be a supremely personal one in this race but existing poll numbers don’t ensure they’ll stay that way.
Meanwhile, on the who-is-turning-off-voters front:
Clinton’s favorability rating is underwater: 39% of voters view her favorably, while 47% say they see the former secretary of state unfavorably.
But Trump’s problem is much bigger. He’s seen favorably by 25% of the general electorate, compared to unfavorably by 58%.
Biden, meanwhile, is the most popular potential candidate — in part because he hasn’t taken the shots that he’d be hit with if he were to enter the race. He’s viewed favorably by 40% compared to unfavorably by 28%.
Another Democratic candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is also popular, at 32% favorable versus 22% unfavorable.
The most popular GOPer?
The most popular Republican is Carson, whose 29% favorability rating outpaces his 21% unfavorability rating. He’s followed by Fiorina (27% to 20%).
The poll shows Clinton with a 7-point lead among national Democrats, at 42% to Sanders’ 35% and Biden’s 17% and
Trump leads among Republicans, at 21% to Carson’s 20%, with Fiorina and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio tying at 11%, followed by Bush’s 7%, Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 6% and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s 5%.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are at 3% each, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is at 2%.
To those who are in the low single digits and still in the campaign it’s apparently a case of “hope springs eternal” — or “in your dreams.”
Political analyst Charlie Cook notes how both parties now face problems with their nominations, Clinton’s vulnerabilities and writes:
This year it seemed like, in very different ways, both parties are at risk of self-destructing. Republicans seem hell-bent on committing self-immolation on both the presidential and congressional levels. Democrats, who pretty much settled on a presidential nominee early on, now find their front-runner hopelessly mired in (depending on your perspective) a scandal or a controversy, one that is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon and has raised legitimate questions about how electable she’d be…..
….In the presidential race, Republicans may end up with a nominee who, in theory, could take advantage of Clinton’s vulnerabilities, if she is the Democrats’ choice. Even so, given the damage to its brand that the GOP continues to sustain, the party might take this surprising opportunity to benefit from the Democrats’ adversities and, potentially, blow it. Much of the rhetoric from GOP presidential contenders and their backers sounds like it was written before women’s suffrage, the Voting Rights Act, and the advent of the 21st century. Or, the party could nominate someone who simply can’t win.
On the Hill, Boehner’s departure won’t bring stability to the volatile GOP House conference. Anyone who thinks it will result in something more than a temporary extension of the federal budget is smoking something that’s legal in Colorado. It’s laughable to think that Boehner would team up with Democrats to shove legislation through Congress on politically volcanic topics such as immigration. Look for Kevin McCarthy, the likely new House speaker, to have a brief honeymoon and then face the same untenable situation that Boehner did.
What a mess.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.