A new Fox News poll finds that since the first GOP debate on Fox News, Donald Trump has lost a point, and some support from women — and the pecking order of the rest of the Republican field has shifted. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders continues to gain on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, although Clinton still enjoys a healthy lead:
Who’s up? Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Who’s down? Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.
Businessman Donald Trump still leads the field for the Republican nomination. He gets 25 percent among GOP primary voters. He was at 26 percent before the debate. Trump’s support among women went from 24 percent two weeks ago to 21 percent now. He mostly held steady among men (28 percent).
The real-estate mogul maintains his first-place status despite also being judged in the poll as having the worst debate performance and being considered the least likeable Republican candidate.
That’s likely because Trump is running his own brand of populist candidacy and is winning over followers who almost have begun to resemble Justin Beiber’s Beliebers in their loyalty to Trump (whose positions in some cases do not match those of most conservatives) and their extreme anger aimed at those who diss their Political (and not celebrity) Fave.
Next in the GOP race is Carson, who garners 12 percent. That’s up five percentage points since the debate and puts him in double-digits for the first time since mid-June. Cruz captures 10 percent, up four points.
Bush has dropped to nine percent. That’s down six points — and puts him in single digits for the first time since April. That’s likely a result of his debate performance, which was judged subpar by those who watched. Bush does well on other measures — he’s seen as both likeable and qualified.
Let’s see how Bush’s poll numbers continue to play now that he has started to play defense lawyer for his brother George W. Bush’s Iraq policy and made assertions about the war that fly in the face of history not just recounted by Democrats but by many Republicans.
“He’s Not Heavy He’s My Brother” is a nice song, but not a good campaign song for Bush.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee held steady at six percent. Walker slips to six percent — down three points and the lowest support he’s received for more than a year.
Perhaps that’s because Walker has been touted as being a highly strong candidate and in favor with the Koch Brothers, but in his debate performance seemed more like Diet Koch.Fiorina garners five percent support (+3 points), with Kasich (+1) and Rubio (-1) both at four percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Paul each get three percent. The remaining candidates are at one percent or less.
But it’s still extremely early in the Presidential campaign season, and these numbers could prove largely meaningless: some will drop, some will gain. And experts have so far been consistently wrong about Trump.
In the Democratic race:
…Clinton drops below 50 percent for the first time, while Sanders keeps climbing. She leads among Democratic primary voters by 19 points (49-30 percent). Two weeks ago Clinton was up by 29 points (51-22 percent). A month ago she had a 40-point advantage (59-19 percent).
Vice President Joe Biden, who is undeclared, receives the backing of 10 percent.
If you want to find out the value of such early polling in predicting the eventual party nominees and winners, research the histories of President Edmund Muskie, President Rudy Giuliani President and President Rick Perry.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.