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Are the historical odds one of the biggest obstacles facing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as she launches full throttle in her second bid for the Oval Office? NBC News’ always solid First Read notes that most voters want change and the historical odds for the candidate who’s older in a White House race aren’t good:
More than navigating President Obama’s approval ratings or learning from her own mistakes in 2008, Hillary Clinton faces this central challenge in her newly announced White House bid: How does a candidate of the past win the future? The March 2015 NBC/WSJ poll found a majority of American voters (51%) saying that Clinton represents a return to the policies of the past (though 60% said the same of Jeb Bush). What’s more, voters said — by a 59%-38% margin — they prefer a candidate who brings greater changes to current policies than someone who’s “experienced and tested.” And then there’s this: Since 1992, with just one exception (in 2000), the younger general-election candidate has won the general election contest:
*1992: Bill Clinton (46) vs. George HW Bush (68)
*1996: Bill Clinton (50) vs. Bob Dole (73)
*2000: George W. Bush (54) vs. Al Gore (52)
*2004: George W. Bush (58) vs. John Kerry (60)
*2008: Barack Obama (47) vs. John McCain (72)
*2012: Back Obama (51) vs. Mitt Romney (65)Another way to look at this question is through the Rauch Rule — writer Jonathan Rauch’s observation that no one, with just a single exception, has taken more than 14 years from first winning office to reach either the presidency or vice presidency. “George W. Bush took six years. Bill Clinton, 14. George H.W. Bush, 14 (to the vice presidency). Ronald Reagan, 14. Jimmy Carter, six. Richard Nixon, six (to vice president). John Kennedy, 14. Dwight Eisenhower, zero… The one exception: Lyndon Johnson’s 23 years from his first House victory to the vice presidency.” But as NPR’s Maria Hinojosa said on “Meet the Press” yesterday, this kind of discussion is problematic when describing the person who COULD be the nation’s first female president. “I have to be honest with you. The terms ‘expiration date’ and ‘stale’ and ‘too late for you’ as a woman, it’s like, I don’t know if men have that same reaction, that’s nuclear.” The question is: Can Hillary’s gender insulate her from the “yesterday” issue? It’s the 2016 question the GOP may care about the most.
All of which merits watching.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.