On Her ‘Intimacy’ Day, (Relatively) Good News for Clinton

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Many people are skeptical about the accuracy and reliability of polling data, their value and their merits.

Harry S. Truman once said, “How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt?”

Nevertheless, polls are polls and a new Washington Post-ABC News poll taken in the days after Cruz announced his bid for the presidential nomination has some (relatively) encouraging news for Hillary Clinton on the day she is to announce her candidacy.

According to the Washington Post, Hillary Clinton “enjoys a decided advantage over Bush and other potential GOP rivals in hypothetical general election matchups,” with Bush — according to the same poll — now leading the field of prospective Republican candidates for the GOP’s 2016 presidential nomination.

Bush — by far the best known among those running for the GOP nomination — is viewed favorably by 33 percent of the public, while 53 percent say they view him unfavorably. Only Clinton among all those included in the poll has a net positive rating, but by the slender margin of three percentage points (49 percent to 46 percent).

But, the Post adds, “[Clinton’s] favorability rating has dropped nine points in the past year and 18 points since she left the State Department in 2013.”

Clinton stands now as the leading contender in either party for the White House, with no serious opposition at this point in the race for the Democratic nomination. But as she prepares to launch her campaign, she emerges also as a polarizing figure, with huge differences in the way she is perceived by Republicans and Democrats.

Among other survey results, according to the Post:

Overall, [Clinton] is seen as a strong leader and as someone with new ideas for the country. But on questions of honesty and trustworthiness, as well as on whether she understands people’s problems or shares the values of average Americans, the public is split almost evenly pro and con.
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While Clinton’s image is stronger than those of Republicans, perceptions of her honesty and empathy have eroded as she has moved toward a 2016 presidential candidacy. Since last measured in June, as she began her tour to promote her State Department memoir, she has suffered a seven-point slip in perceptions of her honesty and an identical fall on the question of whether she understands the problems “of people like you.” Almost all of the decline came from more negative assessments among Republicans.

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Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in the competition for her party’s presidential nomination. She has a 6-to-1 advantage over Vice President Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, neither of whom has announced plans to run. Those who have expressed interest — former senator James Webb of Virginia, former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley and Sen. Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.) — are in the low single digits.
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Tested against four possible Republicans in a general election — Bush, Cruz, Walker and Rubio — Clinton holds double-digit leads in every case…
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Clinton’s supporters are more passionate about their candidate than are Bush’s supporters. More than 8 in 10 Clinton supporters say they are enthusiastic, with more than 4 in 10 saying they are very enthusiastic…

Read the full poll results here.

To read about how Republicans candidates fare in this poll, please click here.

Another poll, a new Bloomberg Politics national poll conducted April 6-8 by West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co finds:

Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul may have a problem with women, and Jeb Bush already has been written off by a large share of potential primary voters…
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Just 11 percent of Republican and independent women in the poll said they’d seriously consider supporting Paul, a U.S. senator from Kentucky who announced his presidential bid last week, compared to 22 percent of men. No other Republican contender has a worse spread