Less than a month before the scramble for the 2016 Presidential nominations of both parties really begins — the second after the November elections ballots are counted — the latest ABC News/Washington Post shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ahead in a split Republican field and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton totally dominating among Democrats.[icopyright one button toolbar]
While it’s silly to predict that Clinton is now a shoo and will face no serious opposition in a march towards her party’s nomination — which means you can expect to see just that from some of the well-paid talking heads who’ll say with utmost certainty as if they know (and they don’t) — several things are clear about where our political scene is now:
1. Some GOPers have buyer’s remorse. They feel they should have voted if they didn’t or not swayed and voted for Barack Obama. And they are split on the alternatives. So you have to wonder if some of this early polling reflects a wish such as “Oh, if only I could turn back to the clock and redo this election! He wasn’t so bad after all. He wasn’t Obama!” If so, it means Romney would be right back where he was during the last primary season having to move further and further right and start to sound like a regurgitation of Sean Hannity’s show.
2. Clinton is ahead because for now she’s getting support from many parts of the Democratic party but that and other factors are sure to change. But these polls are only showing two other possible competitors. There could be more and then the questions are which ideologically similar candidates will split those votes, whether Clinton’s campaign avoids the toe-stubbing it did in 2008, and how she positions herself on some of the tougher issues. Some analysts contend that after two years of one party in power, the candidate of that party cannot win unless he/she distances himself/herself sufficiently so it doesn’t appear as if the candidate is in effect offering a third term for the incumbent.
The details:
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in the potential Democratic field for president in 2016, while the GOP frontrunner in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is a familiar figure – but one not favored by eight in 10 potential Republican voters.
That would be Mitt Romney, supported for the GOP nomination by 21 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. That’s double the support of his closest potential rival, but it also leaves 79 percent who prefer one of 13 other possible candidates tested, or none of them.
When Romney is excluded from the race, his supporters scatter, adding no clarity to the GOP free-for-all. In that scenario former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul have 12 or 13 percent support from leaned Republicans who are registered to vote. All others have support in the single digits.
Were Romney to run again, he’d likely face some of the same challenges that dragged out the 2012 GOP contest. He’s supported by only half as many “strong” conservatives as those who are “somewhat” conservative, 15 vs. 30 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic Party front:
Clinton continues to dominate on the Democratic side, with 64 percent support. Still, there are some gaps in her support: It’s 54 percent among men vs. 70 percent of women and
55 percent among those younger than 50 vs. 72 percent among those 50 and older. And she gets less support from Democratic-leaning independents, 53 percent, than from mainline Democrats, 69 percent
.
Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have 13 and 11 percent support, respectively. Biden does better among those under 50, those with less education and nonwhites; Warren, among college graduates and whites.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.