There are increasing signs that the mid-term elections are the Republican Party’s to lose. The latest: a national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY that show midterm election indicators are working against the Democrats. And this is an election when Democrats can’t count on having a hugely popular President to ride in and save the day:
With the midterm elections six months away, Democrats are burdened by an uneven economic recovery and a stubbornly unpopular health care law. Perhaps equally important, Barack Obama’s political standing is in some respects weaker than it was at a comparable point in the 2010 campaign, which ended with the Republicans gaining a majority in the House.
A national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY, conducted April 23-27 among 1,501 adults (including 1,162 registered voters), finds that 47% of registered voters support the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 43% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. The trend over the past six months in the so-called generic ballot shows that Democrats have lost ground. In October, Democrats held a six-point lead (49% to 43%) in midterm voting preferences.
While a majority of voters (54%) say that Barack Obama will not be a factor in their vote this fall, more (26%) see their vote as a vote against the president than for him (16%). In February 2010, 24% of voters saw their vote as for Obama while about as many (20%) considered it a vote against him.
In other words: unless something changes Democrats need to brace themselves for another 2010 result. AND:
Democratic Voters Less Likely to Say 2014 Ballot is a Vote “For Obama” At this early point in the campaign, Obama inspires far less enthusiasm among Democratic voters than he did four years ago. Only three-in-ten Democratic voters (31%) think of their vote as being “for” the president. In February 2010, 47% of Democratic voters saw their vote as an expression of support for the president.
Republicans are no more likely to consider their vote as “against” the president than they were in early 2010 (46% today, 42% in February 2010). But Republicans typically vote at higher rates than Democrats in midterm elections. Democratic voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Obama may complicate Democrats’ turnout efforts.
Meanwhile, Obama is not going to be a political force that can be counted on to neutralize the GOP unless his status undergoes a major shift:
The president’s overall job approval rating has shown virtually no change dating back to last December. Currently 44% of the public approve of the job he is doing as president while 50% disapprove
In late April 2010, Obama’s job rating was slightly more positive than negative (47% approve, 42% disapprove). Obama’s rating varied little over the remainder of the campaign four years ago.
Obama’s current approval measure is much higher than George W. Bush’s at this point in the 2006 midterm, and Obama is less of a drag on his party’s midterm prospects than Bush was. In April 2006, Bush had a 35% job rating and twice as many voters considered their midterm vote as an expression of opposition to the president than as a signal of support (34% to 17%).
But here’s the really bad news for Democrats:
Yet the public’s desire for a change from the president’s policies is almost as widespread as it was during Bush’s second term.
It’s also clear that it’s up to the GOP to grab defeat from the jaws of victory:
While Democrats face a number of possible disadvantages in the fall, their party’s congressional leaders continue to be viewed less negatively than GOP leaders. Just 23% of the public approves of the way Republican leaders in Congress are handling their jobs while nearly three times as many (68%) disapprove. Job ratings for Democratic leaders, while hardly robust, are not as bad: 32% approve of their job performance while 60% disapprove.
Despite weak job ratings for Republican leaders, the public is divided over whether their economic policies or Obama’s would do more to strengthen the economy over the next few years. About four-in-ten (43%) think Republican leaders’ policies would do more for the economy while about the same share (39%) says Obama’s policies would be more effective.
The poll also found: economic pessimism persists…views about the Affordable Health Care Act haven’t changed…the top mid-term issues are the jobs, healthcare and the deficit…partisan control is a bigger factor for GOP voters (I attribute this to the influence of talk radio and cable talk in influencing how Republican voters think and the arguments they use).
There’s a lot more so go to the link and read the entire poll.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.