Now that it’s a full-fledged news story that influential GOPers are trying to draft former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as a 2016 Republican Presidential nomination contender, the question is: realistically, how are his prospects?
One of the best analysis comes from Martin Longman:
It’s quite possible that Jeb could win the nomination in pretty much the exact same way that McCain and Romney did…by default. But it won’t be possible for him to unite the Republican base. Not only is a big part of the Republican base aligned against the big-government deficit-spending of Jeb’s father and brother, but they are almost pathologically opposed to immigration reform and they’d rather home school their kids than have them race to the top of a Common Core curriculum.
Indeed, Jeb was a highly popular Florida governor. It has now been widely reported that his parent thought he was destined to run for President and occupy the Oval Office — but instead George W. Bush went for it. And, indeed, he seemed to take after his father George H. W. Bush politically more than his brother. There are people in the Republican Party dead set against “another Bush” getting the nomination and, more importantly, defining their party.
If Jeb decides to run and winds up in a showdown with Hillary Clinton, he’ll have a shot, but he won’t be successful if he relies on a get-out-the-base strategy. McCain and Romney proved that the GOP base is too small to carry a Republican to victory in a national election. A successful candidate would have to take the far right for granted and accept that there will be some drop-off in enthusiasm, while repositioning the Republican Party in the center. Jeb could do that.
On the dime. Jeb Bush has constantly noted that it’s no sin to talk with those who oppose you, or to respect them but aggressively and assertively differ with them. If he woos and wins over the right — and from all signs he has the political skills to do so — he is someone who could enlarge the GOP tent.
But another thing that I think will hamper him is an unwillingness to publicly criticize his brother. I mean, it’s kind of classy to be respectful and protective of your brother, but it leaves you a sitting duck for bombs launched from both the left and the right.
I’m not sure if Jeb will actually run. He’d have to be convinced he has half a prayer of beating Hillary, and I have no idea why anyone would be very confident about any Republican’s chances against her. And, I think, Jeb would have to be pretty confident that he wouldn’t get humiliated and lose the nomination to Mike Huckabee or something.
The big questions are indeed: 1)has the Republican Party shifted so much to the right that it’s now impossible for anyone who smacks of being a Republican who believes in expanding the existing coalition can’t be nominate? And: 2) How could he handle Hillary Clinton and expected democratic onslaught against his being a you-know-who?
One thing in his favor: he has little political baggage.
Except the Bush name.
And that may qualify as a dozen pieces of 44 lb. luggage.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.