This year is it a harbinger of things to come? If there was a favorite at the Conservative Political Action Conference — a conference with speeches offering more red meat to conservative Republican partisans than all of the West Coast CostCos combined — it was clearly Kentucky Senator Rand in the group’s straw poll. He As most pundits will note, given the fact that he who wins the poll is not guaranteed to get the Republican nomination or win the Oval Office, it’s almost meaningless.
Except it isn’t:
Rand Paul handily won the presidential straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference Saturday, one gauge of the Republican base’s mood less than two years before the 2016 primary season kicks off.
The Kentucky senator received 31 percent, far ahead of second place Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who received 11 percent. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson finished third with 9 percent, ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who received 8 percent.
Why is this significant? Because a)it shows that Paul is building on the kind of support that his father Ron Paul had b)it shows shows that even among conservatives,Ted Cruz, for all of his polarizing rhetoric that often lambastes other conservatives, has a lot of work to do, c)it shows Chris Christie continues to have unmended fences that need to be mended if he can go beyond being a favorite of pundits to someone who has a serious shot at the 2016 Republican nomination.
And also:
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum tied for fifth place, with 7 percent.
And also this:Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who finished second last year just behind Paul, fell to seventh place, receiving only 6 percent.
That result — a huge loss of ground — must have Rubio sweating and reaching for another case of bottled water.
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) finished eighth, with 3 percent – tying Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
OOPS! Perry’s speech which brought conservatives to their feet didn’t translate into support. And Paul Ryan? A favorite of the conservative political entertainment complex but not a smash with young conservatives.
Four others pulled 2 percent: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
And many of the voters were young.
GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who has run the straw poll since 1986, said that nearly half of the straw poll voters were between the ages of 18 to 25.
Why is it meaningful?
Paul will get a lot more publicity now in both Republican media and non-Republican media. He will have a higher profile and it could help him with donations. It’ll also make him a bigger target.
Paul has been careful in recent months to choose his words (fewer gaffes) and also politically canny: his attacks on former President Bill Clinton re-trigger Clinton resentment and fatigue among some GOPers, by association swipe at Hillary Clinton, and attempt to neutralize the former President as campaigner.
Watch Paul.
He’ll be a continuing political story.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.