The term “the grown ups” can be infuriating depending on whether it’s your side being dismissed as immature. But there’s little question that “the grown ups” in the Republican Party are the ones who seek to win elections first and then bring about change (as Michael Reagan argues here). Now we’re seeing an example of the grown ups running to shussh the kids who may say embarrassing things when the boss visits to dinner:
GOP strategists are urging restraint in the upcoming debt-ceiling fight.
They are excited by the prospect of reclaiming the Senate in November’s midterms elections but anxious about the party’s capacity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as amply illustrated in recent campaign cycles.
And, indeed, most analysts say there is a good chance the GOP can retake the Senate if it puts up appealing candidates. And herein lies the rub: some Republicans want to put up candidates that tend to demonize and are most popular as what those of us in the news biz would call “quote machines,” people who say peppery or offbeat things that are great to stick in news reports (or blog posts) — or who can actually spark a story that creates an uproar (and creating an uproad in these days of mega-partisans and ideologists, blogs, and social media is not a difficult thing to do).
Quote machines, though, aren’t always great for a party that wants to w-i-n an election.
Already — on talk radio, in some blog comments sections — some GOPers seem to be salivating over the next rematch in the debt ceiling battle. And so you have the grown ups (strategists) letting their concern be known:
Congress must vote to raise the $17 trillion debt ceiling sometime in February or
March. In the past, Republicans have looked to extract major concessions, such as dollar-for-dollar spending cuts.The strategy bore fruit in 2011 when President Obama, with an eye toward securing reelection, signed the Budget Control Act, which included $2 trillion in cuts.
But now the president is refusing to negotiate on the debt ceiling and the GOP is still feeling the reverberations from a 16-day government shutdown in October that wreaked havoc on the party’s public approval while reaping almost nothing in exchange.
And there is a looming danger for GOPers. Can they really assume they know how Obama will react to firm demands this time? The Daily Beast’s Michael Tomsky thinks Obama could surprise them. Here’s one of his predictions for 2014:
2. Situation: Debt Limit. Prediction: Obama Will Go Big, Tempt Impeachment Charges.
The Republicans will announce some set of ridiculous debt-limit increase demands. Obama will say, “I’m not negotiating.” He has said that every since the first debt fiasco back in 2009, but behind the scenes, the administration has talked.
This time I think it’ll be different. I sense Obama has just reached the end of his rope on this one. That face of his, which so rarely betrays an emotion, contorts whenever the issue arises, into the shape of someone who’s just sucked a lemon. In addition, Congress’s role in the debt limit is at heart a question of constitutional law, and if this con-law president is going to take a stand over anything, it’s probably that. I don’t know exactly what Obama is going to do, but it could be dramatic—he even had his lawyers studying that platinum-coin nonsense last year. This is the issue on which he’ll invite an impeachment charge. I’d imagine he’d like to be the president who settled this one once and for all—assuming it’s settled in his direction, which I can’t predict, except to say I think efforts to impeach him over the issue would go nowhere and only help Obama.
So, The Hill’s article goes on to note, the grown ups are looking to win power first:
That has many in the party looking to go small this time around, arguing that the top priority must be locking up electoral gains in November. Those gains, they say, could pave the way to the attainment of many big policy goals.
“What Republicans have to realize [is] the political winds are in our direction. We can’t risk changing the winds at this stage,” said GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak. “You can shut down the Obama agenda completely if you have the Senate.”
A GOP decision on the debt ceiling is likely to come out of the annual House retreat scheduled for Jan. 29 in Maryland. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has told Congress he expects the government could be in danger of missing payments by early March, giving lawmakers a narrow window to find another borrowing boost.
“The only way you lose the House is if Dems intercept a Hail Mary pass on the debt ceiling,” another GOP strategist said. “If you lose the House, you open the door to everything.”
The Republicans could try a Hail Mary.
Democrats would be more likely to throw an election than a Hail Mary.
And Democrats seemingly have a lot of experience with that.
But are the unpinnings of Republican confidence realistic — or overblown?
The highly astute Booman says Republicans may be a bit overconfident:
I agree that they’ll do better if they don’t nominate “fools” and refrain from more hostage-taking, but those two things are insufficient to win them the midterms.
They need to figure out not why they lost Senate elections with “loser” candidates, but why they lost them with decent candidates. Why did Jon Tester and Joe Manchin get reelected in Montana and West Virginia, respectively? Why did Heidi Heitkamp win in North Dakota? Why did Tammy Baldwin skunk Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin? What allowed Dean Heller to beat Shelley Berkley in Nevada?
Most Republican incumbents are properly considered safe bets for reelection, but Mitch McConnell is not going to beat Alison Lundergan Grimes unless he offers some positive vision.
Yet, the more difficult task will be to challenge Democratic incumbents or take over open seats previously held by retiring Democrats.
And:
So, even though the Republicans are targeting newly-open seats in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, there is no reason to assume now that the Democrats can’t compete in those states in November.
They think they can knock out some incumbents in red states, like Mark Begich of Alaska, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, but incumbents are not easily defeated.
The biggest advantage the Republicans have is that it is easier for them to turn out their base in midterm elections than it is for the Democrats. But I don’t think Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, or Mark Begich are unhappy not to be sharing the ticket with Barack Obama, as they were in 2008 when they were last elected. This time around, they aren’t afterthoughts who have to overcome John McCain’s advantage in their states. They can stand alone on their own merits, and that’s an advantage to them.
The GOP can certainly damage their prospects by resorting to more unpopular antics, but the country doesn’t live in their media bubble, and it won’t vote as if it does. To win the midterms the way they hope to win them, they will have to develop a positive message.
And that is the problem: today’s Republican Party and the conservative entertainment political media (Fox News talkers, radio talk, many blogs) seldom present an affirmative alternative. It’s a lot about name calling, hurling adjectives at Barack Obama and the Democrats, and picking little fights that start in one part of the conservative media, spread, and are then picked up by the mainstream media.
But a positive message?
The GOP presents less a message about a shining city on the hill than a sinking shack in the sand.
That message could still work if the Democrats present voters with an image of their party as incompetent, stuck in liberal progressive polemics, and promising but not delivering on ringing rhetoric.
And Barack Obama and the Democrats are working on that.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.