I’ve often noted that one poll does not a trend make. You need to see a progression. And Gallup’s last poll, actually a graph showing the progress of his approval rating, shows a President steadily, inexorably, almost without cessation losing support. It’s not just the numbers; the graph says it all:
President Barack Obama wrapped up 2013 with an average 41% approval rating in December, unchanged from November. However, his monthly job approval declined steadily through most of 2013, including a three-percentage-point drop in March.
Gallup then analyzes the impact of issues on Obama’s numbers, and how they shifted during the year. Pundits now are either writing him off or some Democrats will suggest the polls aren’t telling the whole story (partisans of both parties insist a poll isn’t telling the whole story when they don’t like the story and that a poll is telling the whole story when they like the story). Gallup then takes a look at the prospects for a political recovery:
It is common for presidents to have an extended period of decline in approval at the start of a presidency. It’s the reality check after the honeymoon, and Obama also experienced this. It is also common to see extended downturns in approval following a major job approval rally such as George H.W. Bush experienced after the 1991 Gulf War, and George W. Bush experienced after 9/11.
It has been less common to see sustained periods of significant decline during the normal course of a presidency, such as what Obama experienced this year, his fifth in office. The few examples of these from recent presidencies are:
Reagan suffered a particularly protracted decline at the beginning of his presidency, with a normal period of decline from his initial approval rating lengthened by the 1981-1982 recession. Then, given an improving economy, he amply recovered in time to win re-election in 1984.
Later in Reagan’s presidency, between 1986 and 1987, he suffered three quarters of decline over the Iran-Contra affair, falling from the 60s to below 50%, but this was followed by only a partial recovery for most of 1988. Only at the tail end of his presidency did his approval rebound to the 63% seen in the fall of 1986.
George H.W. Bush’s rating fell for three quarters in 1992 — mainly owing to the economy — after it had already spent the three previous quarters coming down from its 1991 Gulf War high. This spelled the end of his presidency.
George W. Bush’s rating dropped for six quarters from 2005 — his fifth year in office — through the first half of 2006 as the Iraq war became increasingly unpopular, and for three more quarters between 2006 and 2007. It never recovered.
Thus, recent polling history doesn’t offer any firm conclusions about what a year of decline portends for a president; there is precedent for recovery, but also for stagnation.Separately, Gallup trends show that two-term presidents typically receive less support in their second term than their first, what some have dubbed a “second-term curse.”
Could his upcoming State of the Union address turn things around? Fat chance:
Even in the short term, it’s unlikely Obama will get much of a boost out of his upcoming State of the Union address, given how little his past addresses have been associated with increases in approval.
Prior Gallup analysis shows that Obama’s overall job approval rating is highly linked to his approval rating on the economy. This means that under normal circumstances, if his overall job rating is to increase, not only does the economy have to improve but Americans have to acknowledge it and give Obama credit for it. In 2013, despite BLS reports of reduced unemployment, a soaring stock market, and other positive economic signs, Americans maintained both a net-negative view of the economy and a negative view of Obama’s handling of it. Clearly, they are looking for stronger economic growth before relinquishing their negative posture on the economy — something Obama will need to focus on.
But, Gallup notes, Obama’s problems aren’t mostly due to the economy:
At the same time, Obama’s 2013 decline did not chiefly stem from economic problems, but political ones: budget conflicts with Congress, revelations that his administration sanctions a national security program involving extensive covert monitoring of Americans’ phone and computer data, and negative public reaction to the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. As long as these issues linger, particularly without major progress felt on the economy, Obama’s job rating could continue to languish in 2014 and beyond.
So Obama can’t be called “another Carter” or “another FDR” or “another JFK” or “another Reagan.”
A future President may be called “another Obama” — and unless the current political context changes, it won’t be a huge compliment.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.