Andrew Sullivan created a lot of buzz with his blunt post “Did Obama Just Throw the Election Away?” Our political Quote of the Day comes from NBC’s First Read which raises an issue which raises THIS issue: Will the Democrats throw the election away?
Or, rather, I would ask, will the Democrats throw the election away again?
*** The enthusiasm gap: The aftermath from the debate couldn’t have come at a better time for Romney and a worse time for Obama. Why? Just look at the enthusiasm gap between the two parties BEFORE the debate. In our most recent NBC/WSJ poll — which was released before the debate — 79% of Republicans had high interest in the election, versus 73% of Democrats; 85% of seniors were high-interest voters, compared with 52% of those ages 18-34; and 73% of whites expressed high interest, versus 81% of blacks and 59% of Latinos. That’s why, even in our pre-debate poll, Obama and Romney were running virtually even among high-interest voters (Obama 49%, Romney 48%) and Obama’s lead among likely voters was three points (49%-46%) versus seven points among registered voters (51%-44%). And this enthusiasm gap is even more exaggerated in this new Pew survey which, for the first time, in a poll that does NOT weight by party I.D., has the GOP with a party I.D. advantage. While it’s unlikely the GOP does have an advantage in the Nov. election by as much as Pew shows, it does measure short-term enthusiasm boosts for a party. And that’s why Chicago shouldn’t comfort themselves too much in the fact that the Pew poll shows an electorate we’re unlikely to see vote in November. The fact remains: Republicans are more enthusiastic today about the election than they were last week and they already had an interest advantage going into last week.
I’ve often noted that in so many elections when Republicans were swept to power it turned out that some Democrats either wanted to teach their own party a lesson and stay home due to a big issue, or they became discouraged so they just didn’t vote. And then later once GOPers get in power and use the power they won because discouraged or petulant Democrats sat on their fannies at home on election day, these Democrats complain about the mean, old Republicans putting in Republican judges, or changing laws in their states in ways that Democrats and Democratic party allied groups don’t like.
Elections DO have consequences.
It’s clear Republicans fully understand that this year.
Do Democrats?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.