As most responsible analysts will note, this election is not over yet and those who think Barack Obama has it in the bag are deluding themselves. But the polls continue to be troubling for Mitt Romney. Such as this one:
PPP’s newest Wisconsin poll finds Barack Obama opening back up a wide lead in the state. He has 52% to 45% for Mitt Romney. This is the largest lead we’ve found for Obama in the state since February. Our previous two polls had shown just a single point separating the two candidates.
One thing that’s definitely not helping Romney is his comments about the ‘47%’ this week. 86% of voters say they’re familiar with what Romney said and 53% consider his comments to have been inappropriate, compared to only 40% who feel they were appropriate. 39% of independent voters say Romney’s comments made them less likely to vote for him compared to only 20% who consider them a positive, and Obama’s now opened up a 52-43 lead with independents.
The movement toward Obama in Wisconsin isn’t all about Romney flubbing though. Obama’s on pretty solid ground in his own right with 52% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. That’s up a net 9 points from a month ago when his approval spread was 46/50. Voters trust Obama more than Romney both on the issue of the economy (51/46) and on foreign policy (52/44).
Another major development in Wisconsin is that Democrats are starting to match the enthusiasm level of the Republicans, something they weren’t able to do in the recall election in June. 65% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the elections this fall compared to 63% of Republicans. A big part of the GOP’s success in Wisconsin over the last couple years has been having the more fired up base, but it doesn’t appear that advantage will continue to be in place this fall.
It was initially thought that Paul Ryan could be a big boost for the GOP ticket in Wisconsin, but that’s not really proving to be the case.
Romney is trying to adjust his strategy…gingerly moving a bit more to the center..and vowing to offer More Mitt on the campaign trail, at events, and in ads. Will that prove to be a smart strategy — or a miscalculation? Can Romney work it so he wears well?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.