This is going to be a swing state and partisans in each party who are suggesting that in the end it’ll be easy their party’s candidate are increasingly faced with evidence that they’re deluding themselves. Like this:
Mitt Romney now runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in electoral-vote-rich Ohio and Florida, according to the latest installment of the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll, another sign that the two candidates begin the general election campaign locked in a tight battle for the White House next year.
In both states, the race has tightened since the previous poll conducted in late March. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney in the race for the Keystone State’s 20 electoral votes, the poll shows, putting the president is in a slightly stronger position there compared to the previous survey.
Romney’s rise in two of the three critical states is fueled by voters’ perceptions of the economy. Voters in Florida and Ohio think the former Massachusetts governor would do a better job with the economy, while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question. And only a slight majority of voters in each state thinks the economy is beginning to recover.
“Romney’s ability to cut into the president’s leads in Ohio and Florida reflects two changes in the political environment,” according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “First, since he is now the de facto nominee, Romney is no longer being attacked by his fellow Republicans, who are closing ranks behind him. Second, voter optimism about the economy has leveled off, reflecting economic statistics over the past month and the public reaction to them.”
In the end it will come down to the economy: how the economy is doing, the positions of each candidate (not their history with dogs), and the one most trusted by voters — particularly independent swing voters.
And the strategy is geared to start to woo independents and moderates. For instance, the GOP is going to try and define Obama as divider in chief:
Republicans are seeking to portray President Obama as the divider-in-chief, arguing the presidential candidate who trumpeted hope and change four years ago is now running an increasingly negative campaign.
Their chief argument is that Obama’s attacks on the wealthy are meant to incite class warfare and a heightened us-versus-them mentality never seen before in present day politics.
But Republicans also point to Democrats’ “war on women” and the contraception mandate in Obama’s healthcare law, which they argue is an attack on religious freedom.
Even the lead-up to the anniversary of the death of Osama bin Laden over the last week was used by a sharp-elbowed Obama to divide the nation, Republicans say.
And Romney is moving towards the center:
Mitt Romney is shifting to the center to attract important voting blocs that he may have alienated in the bruising Republican presidential primary.
Romney has recently sought to ingratiate himself with voters in industry-heavy Ohio, women, Hispanics and college students by softening his tone on a range of issues.
Mitt Romney is shifting to the center to attract important voting blocs that he may have alienated in the bruising Republican presidential primary.
Romney has recently sought to ingratiate himself with voters in industry-heavy Ohio, women, Hispanics and college students by softening his tone on a range of issues.
“I guess this is what an Etch A Sketch really looks like,” Weaver said, referring to a Romney staffer’s use of the children’s toy as a metaphor for the campaign’s pivot to the general election.
Going after the center and independents means understanding it and trying to woo it. This is a “given” with most Presidential candidates running in the election. But not with partisans of each party.
One of the most mind-numbing definitions of independent voters I ever heard — I said outloud “WOW” while listening it to on XM Radio – was Ed Schultz’s riff yesterday on his MSNBC show. He asked a series of questions about why independents aren’t excited about Barack Obama and then basically said it was because they don’t like his policy on guns. HUH?
Just to clarify when we talk about the center and independent voters, here are the Tweets I did last night on this subject (start reading from the bottom up to the more recent):
#edshow And if often seems like patisans on both sides WORK OVERTIME to insult, improperly define them and lose their votes.
9h Joe Gandelman Joe Gandelman ? @JoeGandelman
#edshow Partisans on both sides often mistakenly define, disparage and misjudge independent voters.
#edshow Independent voters are not a monolithic group AND some new poll suggest Obama is making inroads with some of them.
#edshow Suggesting that independent voters don’t like Obama because they hate his position on guns is so off base.
Most assuredly, top strategists seeking win over independents are being a bit more accurate in political science terms as they seek to win them over than Schultz was last night as he suggested independent voters are balking at Obama because somehow they’re all fixated on gun issues. Schultz’s riff was the classic example of how centrists, independents and moderates are defined in negative terms by partisans who, ironically, will need their votes to win many elections.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.