You’d think the Republicans wouldn’t have a chance. But they do. More than a chance. As the Times puts it, any hopes the Democratic party has of taking the House back are “dim.”
… Congressional redistricting, a decennial process that generally allows the party in power in each state to draw new lines, has not created a ton of opportunities for new seats for Republicans, as the party powers once expected. But it has forced multiple House Democrats, viewing their odds in new districts as slim, into retirement. Many of those districts are now either in play or solidly Republican, making the climb for Democrats all that more onerous.
On paper, Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to take back House control. In reality, the number is closer to 30 or even 35 since the party not only is likely to lose the seats of retiring Democrats in North Carolina, but also face tougher odds in Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Indiana, Illinois and perhaps in Arizona, in the district once served by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords.
Over all, 15 Democrats have announced their retirements from the House, compared with 10 Republicans. Seven Democrats and eight Republicans have also opted to run for other offices. Among the lot, Republicans leave far more safe seats behind than their Democratic counterparts. …NYT
According to the Cook Report, it’s the Democrats’ retirements that are making it difficult for Dems to win back the House.
I know I’m not the only ex-Dem who’s aghast that Republicans could take both Houses and the White House in November. Rejoin the Democratic Party? Move to the right to accommodate its changes? No.