The conventional wisdom on last night’s GOP Presidential debate in New Hampshire is coming in. It’s three pronged. And not good news for Rick Perry. Three strands are emerging:
1. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney put in another good performance. It’s increasingly becoming easier for many conservative Republicans to envision him as a nominee who could not just hold the stage in a debate with Barack Obama but beat Obama. His debate performance is chipping away at some of the distrust because he is so effective. Rack that up to experience running for President and making lots of mistakes in the past.
2. Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain enhanced his status as an up and coming anti-Romney and likely Tea Party favorite. A lot of the brickbats were aimed at him last night and the consensus is that he handled them well and continues to come off as the kind of candidate who could win the hearts of Tea Party movement and other Republican “non-establishment” types. The lingering question is whether he could win a general election and has appeal beyond the GOP base. He’ll soon be rolling in dough and not the kind that makes pizza.
3. Gov. Rick Perry came across as the person who was there but not there, a shrunken visage of the Great Conservative Hope he had been just weeks ago. He continues to turn in tepid performances marked by perfunctory answers, a lack of genuine passion and the tinge of a Not Ready for Primetime national candidate.
What comes next?
The bottom line: a Romney candidacy is what the White House fears most — Romney is the one GOPer in the race today who could be appealing to independents, moderates and the many former moderate Republicans exiled from the GOP.
A personal observation:
I’m now on a national tour that will go until the end of May 2012. I’m in the Northeast and have been TRULY struck about how many former Republicans I am meeting: people who are both sad and angry at the party they once enthusiastically backed and loved. They almost always say the same thing: they are fiscally conservative but progressive on social issues and turned off by most of the people running for President and the “mean” tenor of their party. Many of them say they liked Romney in his old incarnation and like him the best among those running today.
This is a definite trend I am seeing here in the Northeast. This is not to say Romney would be a shoo in but if he is nominated he’s the GOPer most likely to have cross over appeal at a time when many Americans have begun to discount Barack Obama’s words and the spin from talking heads of both parties. For many Romney would be a good anti-Obama but a Perry or Cain would not be.
The question now becomes whether GOP primary voters will also conclude what some conservatives seem to be concluding: that Romney is showing impressive and greatly improved national political skills and Perry would be a much bigger risk if the GOP wants to win in 2012, given his flawed performance. Perry is indeed proving to be this year’s Fred Thompson: a candidate whose hype has not matched his performance. The difference is that Perry has big bucks. But if he wins the nomination Republicans might be more nervous going into the election than if Romney gets the party’s nod, since Romney has shown consistency in his performance as a national political competitor.
The Christian Science Monitor nails it:
On a night when Texas Gov. Rick Perry had the most to lose, Governor Perry might have lost the most.
The Republican presidential debate at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire Tuesday night was, if nothing else, an opportunity for the Texas governor. Losing support in the polls and replaced by Herman Cain as primary challenger to perpetual front-runner-by-default Mitt Romney, Perry had a chance to change the momentum.
He could attack Mr. Cain for his plan to create a national 9 percent sales tax.
He could cast former Massachusetts Governor Romney’s health-care law as a job killer.
In the end, however, he looked like the candidate most likely to have left the iron on at home. By the end, pundits across the cable-TV landscape were wondering whether Perry had the fire to run for president, so muted and disengaged was his performance.
It was the most notable development of a night lacking in notable developments.
Romney was, again, the best debater – something that has before done little to erase the stain of once being a blue-state governor, and is unlikely to do so now. Having won the endorsement Tuesday of the man whom Republicans craved to unseat him (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie), Romney’s only real purpose in the debates is to avoid self-inflicted wounds, which he did adeptly enough.
Meanwhile, the debate, which was confined to economic issues, played to Cain’s strengths as a former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza and chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City. The event could have been titled: The Republican Presidential Debate – An Evening with Candidate Cain’s 9-9-9 Plan.
For his part, Perry seemed to fade into the background for much of the two-hour debate as Romney denounced President Obama’s leadership, Cain defended his economic plan and former House speaker Newt Gingrich opined far and wide on policy issues. Perry had to defend a state fund that was intended to promote business investment in Texas against charges of cronyism.
On the other hand, Perry also has raised $17 million, giving him a war chest to wage an extended campaign. And he bragged that Texas has the strongest record in job creation of any state in the nation.
Here’s a cross section of other reaction:
By those basic measures of fitness for office, Rick Perry once again failed to deliver. He was languid. Passive. Half-hearted. Listless. Just like he was during the 9/23 debate.
I’m really, really trying to be nice.
Looks like Team Perry’s plan to have him sleep more isn’t working.
At one point during the debate, candidates were allowed to question each other. Armed with the golden gift of new White House records showing intimate meetings between Romneycare architect Jonathan Gruber and the Obama administration, Perry mumbled a jovial question at Romney for a few seconds — after which Romney steamrolled him with his usual spin for the next several minutes.
Perry disappeared somewhere under the table after that. Or maybe he was playing Words with Friends on his iPhone. Or looking at his watch George H.W. Bush-style.
At another point, Perry mentioned “block granting” — several times — as the answer to America’s fiscal prayers.
Crickets chirped in the audience.
(Read her entire take on Perry. It doesn’t get more flattering).
—From the Daily Kos’ Jed Lewison’s “live blogging” (versus dead blogging):
6:59 PM PT: Well, it’s over. What’d you think?
7:01 PM PT: First thing: I found this debate spectacularly uninformative. I literally learned nothing about these candidates that I did not already know. Partly I blame that on the moderators and the format, partly I blame it on the candidates, and partly on the fact that there are just too many of them. I guess the highlight was Newt Gingrich saying Barney Frank and Chris Dodd should be sent to jail, because it’s always funny to watch Newt Gingrich talk himself into a lather.
7:03 PM PT: Second thing: Politically, I bet Romney is pleased. Nobody laid a finger on him, and the only guy who was trying (Rick Perry) is either too dumb or too unwilling to successfully land a punch.
—From Stephen Green aka Vodkapundit’s “drunk blogging” (definitely the best way to watch Rick Perry these days):
6:53PM For my own self, I’d like to thank Bloomberg TV for hosting — and Charlie Rose for moderating — tonight’s heartwarming episode of the Mitt Romney Show. I hope everyone enjoyed it, especially the inevitability. And the specificity.
–Excerpts from The Huffington Post’s Howard Fineman’s MUST-read-in-full piece:
If the American people are looking for concrete, comprehensible specifics about a way forward to more jobs for the middle class, it is hard to know if they found any in the GOP presidential debate at Dartmouth Tuesday night.
Cain has been a star of this Mad Hatters Tea Party, declaring that his “9-9-9” tax plan had been vetted by a guy in Cleveland and that “dynamic scoring” meant that a $2 trillion shortfall estimated by Bloomberg was not, in fact, a shortfall…..
…..Romney all but declared a trade war on China. Newt Gingrich called for jailing Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, said that new prostate exam guidelines will “end up killing people” and suggested that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should be booted — even though neither the president nor Congress has that power until his term ends several years from now.
Rick Santorum talked somewhat comprehensibly but not specifically about his re-industrialization plan, though again the details were fuzzy, at least in this telling.
A subdued Ron Paul was well, Ron Paul, mumbling on about the superiority of Austrian economists to Keynesians. That’ll win over the middle class.
Gov. Rick Perry of Texas kept quiet, knowing either that he is in over his head or that no one in the country understands what is being said.
—Powerline’s John Hinderaker in another read in full post. Here are his reactions to Romney, Cain and Perry:
* Mitt Romney did very well again. He comes across as strong, reassuring, articulate, experienced, knowledgeable. At one point, other candidates peppered him with questions. That helped Romney, I think–he came across as the candidate who matters. He also defended Romneycare more passionately than I have seen before. His pitch in his closing statement for a strong America was powerful, given the breaking news on Iran’s apparent terrorist plot inside the U.S.
* Herman Cain was very good. He took incoming fire tonight because of his standing in the polls, but he gave at least as good as he got. What is striking to me about Cain’s candidacy is the fact that he battles on even terms with the other candidates. He isn’t the black candidate, like Barack Obama. The rationale of his candidacy isn’t his skin color, it is his proposals for the economy–proposals that are well grounded because of his life spent with great success in the private sector. His role in this campaign is transgressive, to borrow a word that leftists love.
* Rick Perry, during the half of the debate that I saw, bordered on invisible. I don’t know whether the pundits who say this was make or break for Perry are right, but it certainly was not a strong night for him. One thing that strikes me as odd is how little mileage Perry gets out of his job creation record in Texas. He mentioned it a time or two, but, as in prior debates, he didn’t use it effectively as the foundation of his claim to be the strongest candidate.
–-From the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato’s Twitter account. Sabato is one of the country’s best and most reliable political analysts whose predictions often come true and whose insights later prove correct:
LarrySabato
I can’t imagine the Perry people can be happy. Perry didn’t stand out, got tough questions, few memorable zingers for his opponents.Larry Sabato
Cain’s 9-9-9 will be only thing most people remember. Double-edged sword, because now it is going to be analyzed as more than a slogan.Larry Sabato
Santorum tried to mix it up despite sleepy setting & format. Bachmann did better than expected also. Newt always shines in debates.Larry Sabato
This prof’s grades: Romney A, Cain A, Gingrich A-, Santorum A-, Bachmann B+, Paul B, Huntsman C-, Perry D+Larry Sabato
Not a debate that will be long remembered. Mainly will be known for shift to critique of Cain’s candidacy.
—Some Tweets from another superb analyst, national political columnist Dick Polman. A cross section of his reaction:
DickPolman1
You mean to say we have another GOP debate on the 18th? Tune in next Tuesday for another episode of “Romney and the Dwarfs.”Dick Polman
#Perry gets question about how rich Americans’ income has jumped 300 pc in last 30 years – and he pins it on “job killer” Obama. Pathetic.Dick Polman
Clueless Herman Cain says his choice for Fed chair is Alan Greenspan. Huh? He helped fuel recession by opposing crackdown of Wall St sleaze.Dick Polman
Santorum trying oh so hard. I didn’t vote for TARP, he declares. Nope. The vote was in ’08. He was thrown out of office in ’06.Dick Polman
Romney just filleted Perry and tossed his bones into the trash. Nothing Perry can say when reminded that TX has the top number of uninsured.
UUPDATE: Some more reaction coming in.
—CBS News (again I’ll just offer Romney, Perry and Cain here so go to the link to read it all). In its winners and losers ranking it ranked Romney in the winners (with House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul), and Cain and Perry in the losers with the others:
Mitt Romney: Another sterling debate performance from Romney, who once again looked far more presidential than anyone else onstage. During the portion of the debate in which the candidates asked each other questions, rivals like Herman Cain and Rick Perry took direct aim at him; Romney hit back hard at Perry, leaving him looking like a schoolboy with his hand caught in the candy jar, and suggested Cain’s claim that Romney’s economic plan was too complicated showed Cain didn’t understand the complicated nature of the economy. When Romney asked his question, he directed a softball to Michele Bachmann – a show of strength in light of Bachmann’s long odds at winning the nomination. Romney would be all too happy to see Bachmann stick around at least until to the Iowa caucuses, where she can split the conservative vote with Cain and Perry and give Romney the opening he needs to win the state.
Herman Cain: Cain was on the defensive for the first time during the debate Wednesday, defending himself against moderators and rivals who afforded him increased scrutiny due to his increased standing in the polls. And while it wasn’t a terrible performance by Cain by any means, he spent too much time harping on his 9-9-9 plan – missing an opportunity to put to rest concerns that he lacks the knowledge for the job. (Concerns he himself has fed.) Cain can only get by on 9-9-9 and personal magnetism for so long. If he wants to have staying power as a viable alternative to Romney – and attract the donors he needs to build an infrastructure to compete with both Romney and Perry – he needs to do better.
Rick Perry: Perry was virtually invisible for the first half of the debate, getting little attention from moderators – a demoralizing state of affairs for a man who just one month ago was seen as the frontrunner for the nomination. The Texas governor improved over the course of the debate, offering a strong closing statement, but there was no momentum-changing moment he could build off to reverse his slide in the polls. And his string of strange facial contortions in response to the other candidate’s comments – look for the sure-to-be-forthcoming YouTube mashup – certainly didn’t help the cause. He needed to score some points off Romney, but he spent much of the debate looking a little bit lost.
After months of treading water as the play-it-safe candidate who has neither enjoyed nor suffered any big campaign moments, Mitt Romney is finally having the best week ever.
Conventional wisdom would have it that Texas Gov. Rick Perry, with his hapless debate performance in Orlando last month; Herman Cain, with his growing momentum, and Michele Bachmann, with her recent disappearing act, would have had the most on the line at Tuesday night’s Washington Post/Bloomberg Republican debate in Hanover, N.H.
But allow me, if you will, to buck convention.
It was, in fact, Romney, the so-called front-runner – by my count, for the last seven years – who had the most to lose or gain after watching conservative voters spend months begging a guy named “Anyone But Romney” to run. And thanks to some recent good fortune and a strong performance Tuesday night, he may now be an actual front-runner – in hearts as well as minds.
—The Politico’s Jonathan Martin:
Hours after Chris Christie signaled he believes Mitt Romney is the Republican party’s inevitable nominee, Romney and the rest of the GOP field went about proving him right.
Romney again outclassed the opposition in Tuesday’s Bloomberg/Washington Post debate. Again, none of the other GOP contenders laid a glove on him. And in a telling move that seemed to acknowledge the limits of Rick Perry’s candidacy, the Texas governor effectively tried to survive the debate by not losing it.
….After starting the day with a coveted endorsement from Christie, the New Jersey governor who may have posed the most serious threat to Romney’s candidacy, the former Massachusetts governor ended it by standing above an increasingly muddled group of rivals. Aided by a group of competitors who’ve risen and fallen — or not run altogether — the former Massachusetts governor’s steady-as-he-goes strategy has returned him to unqualified frontrunner status.
….And Romney was further helped with two other consequential developments: Perry’s decision not to contest the debate and the attention heaped on Cain and his ubiquitous 9-9-9 economic plan.
After suffering through consecutive brutal debates, Perry and his team clearly made a decision to use this forum as a pivot point, rather than an opportunity, in which he would talk up his coming economic roll-out and not seek to tear into Romney or otherwise repair the damage from his past performances.
The Texas governor was absent from much of evening’s back-and-forth, rarely interjecting as some of his competitors did freely.
After the debate, Perry seemed to concede that he wasn’t looking to stand out.
“I just try to get up every day and do my job, and debates are not my strong suit,” the Texas governor told reporters following a post-debate party at a Dartmouth fraternity house.
Instead of attempting a debate knock-out, Perry is now aiming to reverse his steep slide in the polls with a series of policy speeches. The first, scheduled for Pittsburgh on Friday, will focus on energy and initiatives a president can push through without the approval of Congress. Then, in two weeks, Perry will deliver an address in South Carolina offering a broader growth agenda, said campaign officials.
If Rick Perry is going to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, he’ll have to do it based on something other than his debate performances.
The Texas governor fought his way through another two-hour session as his top rivals, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, coasted through relatively unscathed, scoring points, defending their plans.
Perry avoided major stumbles that afflicted him at three previous debates, but he did not take advantage of opportunities to land punches on Romney. He specifically did not carry out a sustained assault on the healthcare plan that Romney developed as governor of Massachusetts.
Perry, popular with social conservatives looking for a Romney alternative, cannot be written off. His $17 million raised in the third quarter of this year was a powerful testament to his ability to fully fund a campaign in the early voting states.
But he may have missed an opportunity to claw back some ground lost to Romney in national polls of Republican voters, after bursting onto the scene in first place in August only to fall behind former Massachusetts Governor Romney and businessman Cain.
“I thought he was rather cautious and I think because of that he was treated as somewhat of an afterthought,” said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
The consensus view is that Tuesday was another poor debate for Gov. Rick Perry — and an effective one for Mitt Romney.
The betting market Intrade had Mr. Perry’s odds of winning the Republican nomination at 13.9 percent just before the debate began on Tuesday. By midnight on Wednesday — two hours after the debate concluded — they had slipped to 13 percent. Herman Cain’s numbers also fell, to 9 percent from 10 percent.
Mr. Romney gained at their expense, according to the betting market. His odds improved to 66.6 percent after the debate from 63.9 percent beforehand.
My personal take on the debate agrees in part and dissents in part with the bettors. I did not think Mr. Romney had his best night — he was unnecessarily testy at times, both with the other candidates and the moderators, and was less concise than he might have been when talking about his support for the financial bailout in 2008. At times, Mr. Romney seemed to be taking the roundtable format of the debate too literally, forgetting that his real audience are the voters and party elites who were watching the debate at home.
But despite being the focal point of attention during the question-and-answer session between the candidates, Mr. Romney emerged without any real damage. And he was performing comfortably enough that he was able to re-orient a couple of questions toward messages that might appeal to general election voters — particularly with his focus on cutting taxes for the middle class.
Mostly, though, Mr. Romney performed well by comparison — particularly compared with Mr. Perry.
Had I been advising Mr. Perry before the debate, I would have told him that he didn’t need to hit any home runs — a solid and steady performance might suffice to reassure Republicans given the low expectations brought on by his erratic showings in past debates. Then he could adopt a more ambitious strategy at next week’s debate in Nevada.
That seemed to be Mr. Perry’s approach: he was more subdued than in past debates. He also had a less visible presence, with Mr. Cain — now ahead of Mr. Perry in the polls — instead receiving a greater share of the moderator’s attention.
Even with the low-risk strategy, however, Mr. Perry whiffed on a softball question about Mr. Romney’s health care bill. And at other points, like on a question about Ronald Reagan’s approach toward taxes, his demeanor crossed the line from subdued to soporific, with meandering answers that recalled Sarah Palin’s struggles in media interviews throughout 2008.
If there’s a place where I disagree with the betting markets, it is with the notion that Mr. Cain was made worse off, however marginally, by the debate. Mr. Cain also had his wobbly moments, like when he refused to identify the candidates he was considering to replace Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. But if he deserved a middling grade on substance, Mr. Cain’s humor and affability came through, and he avoided major mistakes despite significantly increased airtime…
“Debates are not my strong suit,” Texas governor Rick Perry conceded, in a bit of an understatement, while talking to reporters after Tuesday night’s GOP presidential debate at Dartmouth College. “But you know we get up and do ’em and we just try to let people see our passion.”
Perry’s debate performance was not disastrous like the September 22 showing in Florida that sent him spiraling downward in the polls. But it wasn’t close to what he needed to bounce back. Mitt Romney and Herman Cain dominated the debate Tuesday evening, with Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann offering flashes of wit and intelligence. Perry just seemed sleepy and lackluster. He lacked command of the room and, at times, his words….
….While Perry is certainly down, he’s not out–at least not quite yet. After the debate ended, Perry showed off his skills as a retail politician at a small event with Dartmouth students. At the Beta fraternity house, Perry enthusiastically gave his stump speech. He warned about the debt hanging over their generation and perfectly recited his line about making D.C. as inconsequential to their lives as possible….
Less than 12 weeks from the likely date of the Iowa caucuses, Perry’s asking questions, but he’s still not offering specific answers. Rather than doubling down on entitlement reform–or offering a bold plan to remake the tax code like Herman Cain has proposed–Perry will be putting energy policy at the front and center of his economic plan this week. “I think it’s probably going to be the key to the campaign. Because that’s what people really care about, getting America working again,” Perry told reporters after he left the Beta house. But it’s hard to see how Perry will come up with anything that would truly distinguish himself from the rest of the field. While Perry may know more about energy, the issue may also seem a little parochial. “Texas is big on energy,” a reporter said to Perry. “How are you going to expand this beyond energy?
…Perry is still polling in the teens, just behind Cain and Romney. It’s still possible that conservative voters will coalesce behind Perry as the anti-Romney candidate. But over the past few weeks some conservatives have been asking themselves why they should settle for Perry when they can vote for a more conservative and exciting Herman Cain. Perry hasn’t given them a good answer yet.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.