NY-9 sure looks bad for Democrats. Retired cable TV executive Bob Turner (R) (he launched the failed Rush Limbaugh TV show after huge success with Jerry Springer) defeated state Assemblyman David Weprin (D) in the special election for the House seat held by former New York Rep. Anthony Weiner (D). The last time a Republican won there was in the 1920’s. But… consider this:

Since 2008, New York has had four five special elections, in NY-20, NY-23 NY-29, NY-26 and NY-9. In every all but one case, the seat flipped. NY-20, NY-23, which hadn’t been held by a Democrat since the Civil War, is still in Democratic hands even after the brutal 2010 election.

For all the talk about liberal NY (six Democrats also won in special NY assembly races yesterday), the district is more blue collar conservative than the rest of the city. As such, the district may be phased out of existence next year as part of census-mandated congressional redistricting.