It’s clear the Republican Party now has a real elephant race shaping up. On one side: Mitt Romney the by default darling of Republican establishment types who may not be enamored of him but he’s the best establishment type Republican candidate that they seem to have so far…and on the other Michele Bachman the darling of the Tea Party movement, the talk radio political culture and Republican conservatives who are beginning to conclude that Sarah Palin is too flawed to run a good national campaign or win the White house.
The sign of the elephant race that’s shaping up: a new poll showing Michele-come-lately-to-national-politics virtually tying with Romney-the-familiar-face candidate:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann sit atop the standings in the year’s first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field.
Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.
“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”
Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.
The other candidates tested register in single digits: former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.
Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired an A-list team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa.
“If I were the Pawlenty camp, I would be enormously concerned about this poll,” said Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll is a closely watched indicator of political viability in the leadoff caucus state in the presidential nominating process. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6.
Veteran campaign watchers caution that it’s early: Candidates’ fortunes will rise and fall. Indeed, 69 percent of respondents said they could still be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.
Fair enough.
But Bachman zooming to the near-top in the poll also underscores how Sarah Palin may become the Rudy Guiliani of the 2012 political race if she does decide to jump in: she has waited so long and not been a part of the political process and the political process is speeding along with out her. And, as it does, vacuums are filled. One of them by one Michele Bachman.
SOME OTHER REACTION TO THIS POLL:
—Andrew Malcolm:
Bachmann will appear on two of the Sunday morning talk shows. And then formally launch her run for the Republican nomination Monday in Iowa. After, she’ll do the same in New Hampshire and South Carolina, three early states that have historically played major roles in deciding the nominees of both parties.
On Tuesday, no doubt by coincidence, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be in Iowa to campaign for — wait for it — the new documentary movie about her life, “The Undefeated.” The premiere that day is already sold out. Palin has not indicated her decision about a 2012 race, but too much delay this summer could make her decision irrelevant. The poll reported no numbers for Palin.
Republican ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (4%) will also be wandering around Iowa this coming week, along with Rep. Ron Paul (7%) and Newt Gingrich (7%). Even President Obama, who is not seeking the Republican nomination, will visit Iowa on Tuesday to talk more about creating jobs.
Ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman (2%) has indicated he will not be making a major effort in the Hawkeye state. Presumed GOP front-runner Romney, who finished second there to Mike Huckabee in the 2008 caucuses, can’t appear to be writing off Iowa. But he’ll focus on his homefield advantage in New Hampshire.
Ann Selzer is now the third pollster to exclude Governor Palin from their polling. Scott Rasmussen and Dick Morris did it earlier this week. Excluding Palin’s name from polling strikes me as another way to pound the narrative into Republican voters’ minds that the Governor is not running and unfortunately, only around a quarter of Republicans have been strong enough to fight the narrative.
I’ll admit that excluding her name from polling is a good way to prevent Palin from gaining momentum.
The latest standings in Iowa set a high bar for Bachmann’s launch Monday, in Waterloo, Iowa. Bachmann, who has been touting her Iowa roots, will also appear on two of the Sunday morning talk shows.
But the poll portends an uphill battle for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has invested heavily in neighboring Iowa with staff, time spent on the ground and advertising. He garnered only 6 percent support in the Hawkeye State.
While Pawlenty certainly faces a challenge, the Register’s pollsters surveyed Iowans before Pawlenty’s ad buy in the Cedar Rapids and Des Moines markets as well as radio ads, so they won’t reflect his recent effort to boost his support.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are tied with 7 percent each. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum takes 4 percent, and former Utah governor and ambassador Jon Huntsman takes 2 percent.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.