Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has officially announced he’s jumping into what many pundits see as a faltering 2012 Republican Presidential nomination sweepstakes with a classy online ad — running the ad before his expected official announcement.
Pawlenty will have some work to do: one poll has Barack Obama 15 points ahead of him. But these early polls are meaningless once a political race actually slips into campaign season after Labor Day on election year. The questions now become whether Pawlenty’s campaign can gain traction, whether he will be able to withstand and more intense media scrutiny that is heading his way, whether he can build a coalition from the GOP’s now-more-than-ever-often warring factions, and whether he can get Republican establishment (jilted by some of the others they wanted to run) to get behind is bid.
ABC reports that Pawlenty planned to official launch his campaign today, but was eager to get it started to he released the online video.
Later in Des Moines, Iowa, Pawlenty plans to highlight what will be a central theme of his campaign –that it’s “time for truth.”
“President Obama’s policies have failed,” Pawlenty plans to say, according to excerpts of his prepared remarks. “But more than that, he won’t even tell us the truth about what it’s really going to take to get out of the mess we’re in. … I’m going to take a different approach. I am going to tell you the truth.”
So eager was Pawlenty to start talking about his campaign that he pre-empted his own announcement, releasing a video last night in which he declared he was running for president. “We need a president who understands that our problems are deep and who has the courage to face them,” he said in the clip, “President Obama doesn’t. I do.”
(Note: In a recent ABC News-Washington Post poll Obama led the former governor by 15 percent in a head-to-head match-up, 53 percent to 38 percent.)
Meanwhile, ABC’s Matthew Jaffe points out, the Democratic National Committee has responded to Pawlenty with a video of its own.
….[The]Democratic National Committee released a new video this morning arguing that Pawlenty needs to do more than just say he’s in the race — he needs to explain why.
The new DNC spot makes the case that he can’t run on his track record as governor or as a Tea Party candidate or as a moderate alternative to the Tea Party. And it concludes by surfacing an answer he gave to Time Magazine’s Michael Crowley who asked Pawlenty about the moment he thought he could be president. “I don’t know,” Pawlenty said. “I wish I had a better answer for you.” In their video, the DNC exclaims, “So do we!”
Richard Esckow, writing on The Huffington Post, thinks Pawlenty’s message could be a potent one:
Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced his candidacy today by setting a tone that could resonate with the American people. A lot of people assume that President Obama’s above-the-fray campaign strategy will ensure his re-election, no matter what happens to the rest of his party’s candidates. But I’m feeling a sense of déjà vu , a replay of the moment in early 2009 when a country song sang out a warning for the Democrats in 2010.
….Pawlenty’s message is the same one John Rich evoked in 2009 — so successfully, in fact, that he was able to persuade noted country music lefty Kris Kristofferson to act in the song’s moving and effective video, along with Mickey Rourke. If Pawlenty or another sane-sounding Republican can tap into the same simple, ‘plain-spoken,’ ‘I’m not from these parts’ style, Obama and the Democrats could be in trouble.
People who are familiar with the details know that the country isn’t “broke.” The national debt has risen because of the Bush tax cuts — especially for the rich — two wars, and the cost of repairing the economy after Wall Street corruption nearly destroyed it.
Now we face a grave long-term crisis brought on by refusal: refusal to end tax cuts for the rich, refusal to invest in jobs and economic growth, and refusal to acknowledge that unemployment’s a greater threat to the economy than government spending. The Democrats’ message has been muddled, in large part by Democratic refusal to send unequivocal messages about what’s broken.
Enter Tim Pawlenty. His message is simple, straightforward, direct… and deceptive. Pawlenty won’t tell you that tax cuts for the rich must end. He won’t tell you that Social Security can be fixed just by lifting the payroll tax cap, or that our for-profit health system will break the American budget in the decades to come. But, as in 2009, this simple message looks like a winner.
Why does he think the message could be effective?
The president is vulnerable to attacks like these because his message is mixed and muddled. His recent deficit reduction speech is a perfect example: He gave a brilliant defense of government’s role in ensuring a just and livable society, and he explained why government is needed to bring us out of our current economy, which is still a crisis for millions. Then he presented a pre-compromised set of proposals that undercut his own message.
He also continues to present half-measures and inadequate programs for the unemployment and the housing crisis, rather than coming forward with clear and bold solutions and negotiating down from there.
Respected Republican campaign consultant Mike Murphy via Time:
A few thoughts on Day Zero of the Tim Pawlenty for President campaign. First, Pawlenty is a serious candidate who, unlike many in the race, can actually be nominated. I put him in the current Gang of Three most likely nominees, along with frontrunner Mitt Romney and quirky upstart Jon Huntsman. Pawlenty won two gubernatorial terms in Minnesota, a very tough purple state. He is well organized and an aggressive campaigner. He occupies what I like to call the classic “understudy” slot in the field: a regular Republican who is perfectly acceptable to most of the party if a better known frontrunner implodes and none of the more atypical candidates catch on — think Lamar Alexander in 1996.
So, the question is: How can Tim Pawlenty go from unknown to nominee in seven months? It will not be easy. He must win a conservative primary, without abandoning the pragmatic style that made him appealing in a state outside the GOP base. He should avoid at all costs aping the identity gymnastics that so damaged Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2008. That is easier said than done. Looking at the early calendar, it appears that Pawlenty’s best option is to break through in the Iowa caucuses. The temptation to go palo-right in Iowa will be tremendous. Nothing is harder in an underdog campaign than turning away from easy immediate votes to protect a long term strategy. But Pawlenty should study the caucus geography carefully.
Murphy takes a look at the GOP field so far and concludes:
Pawlenty will need a boost and engineering a high-profile Iowa victory is his best path. Without some help from Iowa, New Hampshire’s primary will be daunting. Mitt Romney already has a solid knot of support there and Jon Huntsman is working hard to recreate John McCain’s 2000 magic with the many independent voters who participate in the Granite State primary. Still, both front-running Romney and Huntsman have vulnerabilities. Pawlenty’s test will be emerging from both Iowa and New Hampshire as a perceived winner. If he achieves that, a thrifty, disciplined and strategic Pawlenty campaign could go all the way.
The Christian Science Monitor offers these 10 points about who Pawlenty is.
In an op-ed in today’s USA today, Pawlenty argues that his campaign is about telling hard truths.
Pawlenty has more practical hurdles to clear, too. He’s a dull and uninspiring character, with very little support in the polls. Pawlenty has a very thin record for a two-term governor; he isn’t well liked in his own state; he was a moderate who’s now dressing up in right-wing clothing; he has no meaningful areas of expertise in any subject; and after hitting the campaign trail, he appears to have adopted a Southern accent as part of a bizarre effort to appear folksy. I’ve even seen some compelling comparisons of Pawlenty to Michael Dukakis.
It’s not the kind of political c.v. that screams “frontrunner.”
And yet, Pawlenty still has a realistic shot at becoming the Republican nominee. With so many other credible candidates passing on the race, the competition for the GOP nomination will apparently come down to Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Jon Huntsman. Given his rivals’ flaws, it’s more than plausible that Pawlenty may find himself the last man standing — the least objectionable candidate able to more or less satisfy all of the party’s factions.
In fact, as near as I can tell, Pawlenty’s goal at this point is to become All Things To All Republicans, effectively telling each GOP contingent, “Tell me what you want to hear and I’ll say it.”
With this Republican field, it’s a message that just might work.
As Jake wrote yesterday, the biggest question Tim Pawlenty faces is whether he or Jon Huntsman will end up being the establishment alternative to Mitt Romney. If he doesn’t win Iowa, it’s hard how to see how he’ll be the guy, so if I were either Romney or Huntsman, I’d be doing everything I could to boost Michele Bachmann in the state. And if I were a top Republican, I’d be doing everything I could to say that Iowa was irrelevant, because if Michele Bachmann wins Iowa and Republicans think that is an important win, you never know what hilarity might ensue.
. My basic take from both the video above, and the excerpts from his planned speech that I’ve seen: Pawlenty’s going to be focused primarily on going after the President, and not worry quite so much about his fellow-Republican candidates. At least, that’s the impression that I get from him taking the opportunity in both to essentially call the President a liar…All of which at least feels like it’s already more hard-hitting than Sen. John McCain ever managed in the last election cycle*. But possibly I’m just allowing my natural optimism to show. Or, possibly, I’m still remembering all the screaming that we did in 2008 behind the scenes, begging that campaign to come out swinging…
Ed Morrissey (who will interview Pawlenty later today):
Tim Pawlenty will announce his official entry into the Republican nomination sweepstakes later today at a rally in Iowa, but he’s also making a statement with his latest video. Instead of the quick-cut, high-energy videos that his team has produced in the past, Pawlenty takes a more serious tone in this spot, and that’s no accident. The message here is that it’s time to get serious and face the truth about the fiscal abyss we face, and the man Republicans hope to replace in 2012 just isn’t up to that task — nor is his even attempting to be…
…If Pawlenty goes to Iowa to oppose farm subsidies, that’s about as honest as a Midwestern politician can get. Will Iowans support that kind of long-overdue honesty, or will they punish Pawlenty for it?
Mitch Daniels’s exit couldn’t have come at a better time for Tim Pawlenty.
As the former Minnesota governor formally launches his campaign in Des Moines on Monday, he finally has a clear shot at convincing the state’s caucus-goers — and ambivalent Republicans across the nation — that he is the one they’ve been waiting for.
rokers fantasize about a perfect candidate, Pawlenty — a former two-term governor and conservative whose greatest strength may be his lack of glaring flaws — has been practically yelling that he is that candidate. He officially begins his long-awaited campaign at a town hall meeting as a new reality sinks in for the GOP: Conservatives looking for an experienced, orthodox choice have no other obvious option.
Now, it seems, is Pawlenty’s moment.
“Clearly, people are looking for a new face, and Gov. Pawlenty is a new face who — like Gov. Daniels — has a record of cutting deficits and managing a budget in a fiscally responsible way,” Pawlenty’s communications director, Alex Conant, said Sunday. “Anyone who’s looking for a fresh face who wants to cut budgets will really like Gov. Pawlenty.”
Pawlenty is hardly the only candidate who stands to benefit from Daniels’s demurral. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is also seeking to emerge as the new alternative for whom Republicans have been longing, while Mitt Romney now seems less likely to be challenged by a candidate who can marshal the unified support of the GOP’s political and financial establishment.
But Pawlenty’s camp believes he is the candidate to whom Daniels’s backers will mostly likely default.
Note that when analysts say “Daniels’s backers” that also usually includes much of the-still-potent-in-the-GOP-establishment Bush wing.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.