Incredible but true! Libya’s scary dictator Muammar Gaddafi may also be on his way out. His soldiers killed 200 people in Benghazi, the most important urban center after the capital Tripoli, but then refused to shoot anymore.
His personal residence in Benghazi, which is like a luxury tent city protected by his personal elite militia, has been taken over by the people. It seems that the militia is at the airport and may fly out soon. All of this is not entirely clear, but sporadic messages from acquaintances in Libya suggest this. Communications are intermittent but do function in spurts.

Of course, over-running the dictator’s camp does not necessarily mean that he is finished. He can recover all his power, including Benghazi, if he manages to quell protestors in Tripoli. But the all-important question mark about Gaddafi’s survival is now out in the open. If his militia refuses to shoot at people in Tripoli, he will be finished.

He is the Arab world’s most ruthless dictator and has been in charge for 41 years. To keep himself in power, he has avoided creating a professional army. Instead, he enforces control through three militias each run by one of his three sons. A special elite force provides the personal guard for him in his residences in various places, including Tripoli. His residences are like small tent townships because Gaddafi is a Bedouin and prefers to sleep in a tribal tent set up with the luxury of a traditional sheikh. The tents are protected by his personal guard. Significantly, those loyal soldiers have refused to kill anymore in Benghazi.

Gaddafi’s fall, following on Mubarak’s removal from power in Egypt, will have special significance because it is a particularly rich oil nation. Unlike Mubarak, he may not hesitate to kill protestors by the hundreds if not thousands to keep his power because the US and other Western countries have little influence over him. He is a well-known eccentric but one of his sons seems sensitive to Western and world opinion. It remains to be seen whether he can stay his father’s hand to prevent bloodshed and persuade the dictator, so far all-powerful in Libya, to step down.

A successful people’s revolution in Libya will almost certainly mean a speedy end to the absolute sheikhdoms of the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. It could also speed up an end to the mullah regime in Iran because people are becoming fearless. Killing them by the hundreds to stay in power is becoming increasingly undoable since the top soldiers expected to shoot to kill may decide to cooperate no longer with such unpopular rulers.

Whatever happens elsewhere, the people seem to have lost their fear of Gaddafi’s soldiers and tough spies. In the confusion, it is unclear whether the top soldiers will refuse to kill any more people in Tripoli after Benghazi’s fall to the protestors’ hands. Messages from Tripoli suggest that Gaddafi is finished and his top people are trying to find a way out. Hopefully, the sons will refuse to force their militias to shoot.